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Paras — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Common

Paras

Simulated

Paras · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Common · 46

Character: Paras

high confidencebearish2830d 18.1%
Estimated Fair Value
$19.93
Lowest listing $16.2318.6% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$16.97
Base Case
$19.93
Bull Case
$22.74

Price History

Dec 8Range $44.86 – $79.04Jun 5

Opportunity Score

54
  • 19% below fair value+22 pts
  • Sales accelerating+9 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (17 sales/mo)+5 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish28

Paras is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-18.1%). Estimated fair value is $20 against a lowest active listing of $16. Valuation confidence is high based on 22-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-18.1% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
22
Sales / Month
17.0
Velocity Score
85/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+21.5%
Confidence
97/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-62.5%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$16.23
All-in cost
$45.23+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$64.92
Expected proceeds
$16.9430% gem → $19.48 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$28.29
Breakeven graded value
$173value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.6dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
59.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
+1.4%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
7active listings
Recent sold avg
$47.57mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$48.23cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$43.31
Median
$54.47
Mean
$54.77
Max
$67.66

Showing 20 of 20 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps19.8250%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices18.7425%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection18.0325%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)4.2920%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$48.23MercariNear Mint9360d agoJan 1View
$52.10eBayNear Mint7861d agoJan 1View
$55.32eBayNear Mint10074d agoJun 9View
$55.80PWCCNear Mint9073d agoJan 1View
$55.93Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9962d agoJan 1View
$58.51Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8660d agoJan 1View
$59.99Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6764d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$46.13Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint55d ago
$50.37TCGPlayerNear Mint60d ago
$45.78eBayNear Mint63d ago
$48.86PWCCNear Mint64d ago
$43.31eBayNear Mint65d ago
$46.15eBayNear Mint67d ago
$50.30PWCCNear Mint68d ago
$50.83MercariNear Mint75d ago
$49.41Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint80d ago
$44.59MercariNear Mint81d ago
$59.53MercariNear Mint90d ago
$58.12MercariNear Mint91d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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