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Applin — Prismatic Evolutions — Common

Applin

Simulated

Applin · Prismatic Evolutions · Common · 9

Character: Applin

high confidencebearish2530d 16.4%
Estimated Fair Value
$18.95
Lowest listing $15.7616.8% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$15.27
Base Case
$18.95
Bull Case
$22.39

Price History

Dec 8Range $71.48 – $97.48Jun 5

Opportunity Score

43
  • 17% below fair value+20 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (14 sales/mo)+4 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish25

Applin is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-16.4%). Estimated fair value is $19 against a lowest active listing of $16. Valuation confidence is high based on 17-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-16.4% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
17
Sales / Month
13.5
Velocity Score
68/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+0.7%
Confidence
95/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-63.2%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$15.76
All-in cost
$44.76+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$63.04
Expected proceeds
$16.4530% gem → $18.91 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$28.31
Breakeven graded value
$171value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.0dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
34.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-5.4%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
21active listings
Recent sold avg
$84.67mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$80.10cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$75.25
Median
$84.49
Mean
$83.85
Max
$94.78

Showing 21 of 22 sales · 1 outlier trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps20.4550%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices18.0725%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection16.7125%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)0.1420%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$80.10MercariNear Mint7367d agoJan 1View
$81.73TCGPlayerNear Mint7157d agoJan 1View
$83.83TCGPlayerNear Mint6265d agoJan 1View
$84.67Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6759d agoJan 1View
$85.48Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7964d agoJan 1View
$85.52MercariNear Mint8963d agoJan 1View
$88.94eBayNear Mint8960d agoJun 6View
$90.33TCGPlayerNear Mint9061d agoJan 1View
$91.22TCGPlayerNear Mint9369d agoJan 1View
$91.96PWCCNear Mint6066d agoJun 9View
$92.23TCGPlayerNear Mint9574d agoJun 9View
$95.74eBayNear Mint8057d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$88.52TCGPlayerNear Mint54d ago
$99.82TCGPlayerNear Mint56d ago
$84.89Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint63d ago
$81.39eBayNear Mint66d ago
$89.79PWCCNear Mint68d ago
$84.38PWCCNear Mint68d ago
$77.48PWCCNear Mint70d ago
$85.79PWCCNear Mint70d ago
$88.05Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint72d ago
$75.25TCGPlayerNear Mint76d ago
$76.00MercariNear Mint80d ago
$80.78eBayNear Mint90d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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