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Lucario ex (Special Illustration) card artwork

Lucario ex (Special Illustration)

Simulated

Lucario ex (Special Illustration) · Jungle · Special Illustration Rare · 6/64

Character: Lucario

high confidencebullish8030d ▲11.1%
Estimated Fair Value
$806
Lowest listing $832
Bear Case
$703
Base Case
$806
Bull Case
$913

Price History

Dec 2Range $674 – $892May 30

Opportunity Score

32
  • Low active inventory+8 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • Price up 11% over 30 days+4 pts
  • Strong demand (7 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish80

Lucario ex (Special Illustration) is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+11.1%). Estimated fair value is $806 against a lowest active listing of $832. Valuation confidence is high based on 2-plus recent comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+11.1% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Active Listings
2
Sales / Month
7.0
Velocity Score
35/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
-9.6%
Confidence
78/100

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps787.3550%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices848.325%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection864.2125%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-1.9220%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$743TCGPlayerNear Mint937d agoJan 1View
$758TCGPlayerNear Mint9210d agoJan 1View
$797PWCCNear Mint9111d agoJan 1View
$974MercariNear Mint9212d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$883Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint2d ago
$781MercariNear Mint3d ago
$761eBayNear Mint4d ago
$815MercariNear Mint4d ago
$824TCGPlayerNear Mint12d ago
$763PWCCNear Mint16d ago
$785eBayNear Mint20d ago
$795MercariNear Mint33d ago
$808eBayNear Mint44d ago
$729TCGPlayerNear Mint47d ago
$717eBayNear Mint49d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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