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Beedrill — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Rare

Beedrill

BGS 9Simulated

Beedrill · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Rare · 15

Character: Beedrill

high confidenceneutral4130d 7.3%
Estimated Fair Value
$43.94
Lowest listing $37.2215.3% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$36.47
Base Case
$43.94
Bull Case
$51.15

Price History

Dec 8Range $65.55 – $122Jun 5

Opportunity Score

57
  • 15% below fair value+18 pts
  • Sales accelerating+9 pts
  • Low active inventory+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
  • Strong demand (16 sales/mo)+5 pts
  • Population growth slowing+2 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral41

Beedrill (BGS 9) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-7.2%). Estimated fair value is $44 against a lowest active listing of $37. Valuation confidence is high based on 4-plus modeled comparable sales.

Neutral: softening prices (-7.2% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
4
Sales / Month
15.5
Velocity Score
78/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+22.8%
Total Graded
2,348
Gem Mint
1,233
Population Growth
+3.6%
Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-82.7%
Grading not economical
slowing population

Population growth slowing to 1.2%/mo — supply tightening across 4907 graded.

4,907 graded · 44% gem · +1.2%/mo

Raw cost
$37.22
All-in cost
$66.22+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$43.94
Expected proceeds
$11.4730% gem → $13.18 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$54.75
Breakeven graded value
$254value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.3dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
36.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-5.0%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
16active listings
Recent sold avg
$90.86mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$86.28cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$79.40
Median
$93.06
Mean
$94.92
Max
$113

Showing 21 of 21 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps43.2150%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices44.5225%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection40.2425%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-1.7950%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)4.5620%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$86.28eBayGraded8860d agoJan 1View
$87.57PWCCGraded9569d agoJan 1View
$88.62PWCCGraded8675d agoJun 10View
$88.91eBayGraded8865d agoJun 6View
$95.74eBayGraded7170d agoJan 1View
$97.07Facebook MarketplaceGraded7656d agoJan 1View
$97.12TCGPlayerGraded7469d agoJan 1View
$97.79PWCCGraded8759d agoJun 10View
$98.43TCGPlayerGraded8267d agoJan 1View
$102eBayGraded8058d agoJan 1View
$104TCGPlayerGraded7770d agoJan 1View
$105TCGPlayerGraded6070d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$93.06MercariGraded57d ago
$101PWCCGraded58d ago
$89.95eBayGraded59d ago
$91.04TCGPlayerGraded60d ago
$85.01eBayGraded61d ago
$88.89Facebook MarketplaceGraded73d ago
$92.40TCGPlayerGraded74d ago
$89.13MercariGraded76d ago
$86.81eBayGraded80d ago
$96.98TCGPlayerGraded91d ago
$100PWCCGraded92d ago
$103eBayGraded94d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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