Farfetch'd
CGC 9.5SimulatedFarfetch'd · HeartGold SoulSilver · Rare · 19
Character: Farfetch'd
Price History
Opportunity Score
53- 18% below fair value+21 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Population growth slowing+5 pts
- Strong demand (18 sales/mo)+5 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- Sales accelerating+4 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral53Farfetch'd (CGC 9.5) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-3.7%). Estimated fair value is $75 against a lowest active listing of $62. Valuation confidence is high based on 20-plus modeled comparable sales.
Neutral: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 6.2%/mo — supply expanding quickly across 2426 graded.
2,426 graded · 29% gem · +6.2%/mo
- Raw cost
- $62.10
- All-in cost
- $91.10+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $75.47
- Expected proceeds
- $19.7030% gem → $22.64 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$71.40
- Breakeven graded value
- $349value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 3.2dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 19.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- +17.3%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 17active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $116mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $136cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $108
- Median
- $130
- Mean
- $126
- Max
- $137
Showing 11 of 11 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 74.87 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 73.12 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 75.81 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -0.83 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 1.92 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $136 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 97 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $143 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 86 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $146 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 63 | 74d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $155 | PWCC | Graded | 61 | 56d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $157 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 95 | 56d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $157 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 80 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $157 | eBay | Graded | 78 | 59d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $160 | eBay | Graded | 85 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $163 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 79 | 63d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $163 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 69 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $165 | Mercari | Graded | 66 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $166 | eBay | Graded | 72 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $127 | PWCC | Graded | 70d ago |
| $115 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 85d ago |
| $108 | PWCC | Graded | 88d ago |
| $116 | Mercari | Graded | 90d ago |
| $135 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 94d ago |
| $131 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 98d ago |
| $113 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 99d ago |
| $130 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 103d ago |
| $137 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 107d ago |
| $134 | PWCC | Graded | 110d ago |
| $137 | PWCC | Graded | 113d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HeracrossHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $147 | $124 | 15.7% | 16.2% | 4 | 53 |
 LaprasHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $169 | $167 | 1.5% | 65.9% | 13 | 32 |
 AzumarillHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $95.63 | $93.58 | 2.1% | 20.3% | 8 | 31 |
 ChanseyHeartGold SoulSilverPSA 10Simulated
| $291 | $216 | 25.9% | 29.2% | 16 | 63 |
 FlaaffyHeartGold SoulSilverBGS 9Simulated
| $186 | $168 | 9.6% | 13.4% | 8 | 37 |
 ClefairyHeartGold SoulSilverPSA 9Simulated
| $112 | $94.17 | 16.3% | 17.4% | 14 | 47 |