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Seel — Crown Zenith — Common

Seel

Simulated

Seel · Crown Zenith · Common · 29

Character: Seel

high confidencebearish2130d 20.9%
Estimated Fair Value
$52.44
Lowest listing $42.8718.2% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$45.33
Base Case
$52.44
Bull Case
$59.42

Price History

Dec 8Range $34.41 – $81.88Jun 5

Opportunity Score

44
  • 18% below fair value+21 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+3 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish21

Seel is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-20.9%). Estimated fair value is $52 against a lowest active listing of $43. Valuation confidence is high based on 21-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-20.9% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
21
Sales / Month
8.5
Velocity Score
43/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
-7.0%
Confidence
98/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-37.7%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$42.87
All-in cost
$71.87+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$171
Expected proceeds
$44.7630% gem → $51.44 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$27.11
Breakeven graded value
$275value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.9dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
41.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-24.7%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
19active listings
Recent sold avg
$74.23mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$55.90cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$59.57
Median
$74.39
Mean
$73.17
Max
$83.86

Showing 27 of 27 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps54.8550%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices49.0625%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection53.9325%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-1.3920%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$55.90TCGPlayerNear Mint6959d agoJan 1View
$57.62PWCCNear Mint8767d agoJan 1View
$58.82Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6170d agoJan 1View
$59.11eBayNear Mint7974d agoJun 8View
$60.66TCGPlayerNear Mint7756d agoJun 9View
$60.70Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8361d agoJun 7View
$62.46eBayNear Mint8564d agoJan 1View
$62.56Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7562d agoJan 1View
$62.59Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6474d agoJan 1View
$63.46PWCCNear Mint8361d agoJan 1View
$63.67PWCCNear Mint6270d agoJan 1View
$64.62TCGPlayerNear Mint6768d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$64.25MercariNear Mint55d ago
$59.57TCGPlayerNear Mint58d ago
$61.99eBayNear Mint59d ago
$71.44PWCCNear Mint70d ago
$81.95PWCCNear Mint72d ago
$68.50MercariNear Mint75d ago
$78.89TCGPlayerNear Mint79d ago
$80.38TCGPlayerNear Mint81d ago
$83.86eBayNear Mint82d ago
$77.05Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint86d ago
$83.48Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint86d ago
$79.16MercariNear Mint87d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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