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Electrike — EX Ruby & Sapphire — Common

Electrike

Simulated

Electrike · EX Ruby & Sapphire · Common · 52

Character: Electrike

high confidencebearish2230d ▼21.4%
Estimated Fair Value
$57.45
Lowest listing $46.3719.3% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$47.36
Base Case
$57.45
Bull Case
$67.04

Price History

Dec 8Range $90.43 – $154Jun 5

Opportunity Score

43
  • 19% below fair value+23 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
  • Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish22

Electrike is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-21.4%). Estimated fair value is $57 against a lowest active listing of $46. Valuation confidence is high based on 16-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-21.4% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
16
Sales / Month
9.5
Velocity Score
48/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
-10.5%
Confidence
96/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-35.8%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$46.37
All-in cost
$75.37+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$185
Expected proceeds
$48.4130% gem → $55.64 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$26.96
Breakeven graded value
$289value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
0.9dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
48.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-21.6%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
22active listings
Recent sold avg
$106mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$83.17cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$87.76
Median
$111
Mean
$116
Max
$148

Showing 30 of 30 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps64.750%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices53.3925%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection51.9625%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-2.120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$83.17Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9263d agoJan 1View
$83.45PWCCNear Mint7660d agoJun 8View
$87.05TCGPlayerNear Mint10067d agoJan 1View
$88.54PWCCNear Mint8168d agoJun 6View
$91.89Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6557d agoJun 10View
$92.13eBayNear Mint8455d agoJan 1View
$93.18Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9056d agoJan 1View
$93.89TCGPlayerNear Mint7275d agoJan 1View
$94.64TCGPlayerNear Mint6960d agoJan 1View
$94.79MercariNear Mint8473d agoJan 1View
$95.85PWCCNear Mint9067d agoJan 1View
$96.75TCGPlayerNear Mint6055d agoJun 10View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$97.64TCGPlayerNear Mint56d ago
$102TCGPlayerNear Mint57d ago
$93.19eBayNear Mint57d ago
$104MercariNear Mint57d ago
$109Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint59d ago
$117TCGPlayerNear Mint62d ago
$110Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint64d ago
$109PWCCNear Mint66d ago
$103TCGPlayerNear Mint66d ago
$108Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint67d ago
$109MercariNear Mint68d ago
$87.76Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint74d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
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Blaziken — EX Ruby & Sapphire — Rare Holo
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  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
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