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Vaporeon — Prismatic Evolutions — Rare

Vaporeon

BGS 9Simulated

Vaporeon · Prismatic Evolutions · Rare · 22

Character: Vaporeon

high confidencebearish2930d 10.6%
Estimated Fair Value
$19.01
Lowest listing $15.4118.9% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$16.59
Base Case
$19.01
Bull Case
$21.40

Price History

Dec 8Range $91.25 – $133Jun 5

Opportunity Score

55
  • 19% below fair value+22 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Sales accelerating+6 pts
  • Population growth slowing+6 pts
  • Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish29

Vaporeon (BGS 9) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-10.6%). Estimated fair value is $19 against a lowest active listing of $15. Valuation confidence is high based on 21-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-10.6% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
21
Sales / Month
6.0
Velocity Score
30/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+14.1%
Total Graded
7,866
Gem Mint
4,164
Population Growth
+1.4%
Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-88.8%
Grading not economical
accelerating population

Population growing 5.7%/mo — supply expanding quickly across 1267 graded.

1,267 graded · 22% gem · +5.7%/mo

Raw cost
$15.41
All-in cost
$44.41+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$19.01
Expected proceeds
$4.9630% gem → $5.70 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$39.45
Breakeven graded value
$170value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
3.9dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
45.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-18.6%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
11active listings
Recent sold avg
$129mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$105cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$118
Median
$131
Mean
$130
Max
$139

Showing 12 of 13 sales · 1 outlier trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps19.4250%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices17.3525%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection18.2925%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-0.7150%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)2.8320%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$105PWCCGraded6173d agoJan 1View
$105eBayGraded8356d agoJan 1View
$111Facebook MarketplaceGraded9272d agoJan 1View
$112eBayGraded9163d agoJan 1View
$115Facebook MarketplaceGraded7957d agoJan 1View
$115MercariGraded7460d agoJan 1View
$116PWCCGraded6355d agoJan 1View
$118eBayGraded9365d agoJan 1View
$121Facebook MarketplaceGraded9469d agoJan 1View
$122MercariGraded6159d agoJan 1View
$130PWCCGraded8761d agoJun 7View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$104eBayGraded59d ago
$118PWCCGraded60d ago
$130Facebook MarketplaceGraded63d ago
$132eBayGraded67d ago
$134eBayGraded68d ago
$139MercariGraded70d ago
$139TCGPlayerGraded77d ago
$134MercariGraded82d ago
$128eBayGraded87d ago
$123TCGPlayerGraded91d ago
$134PWCCGraded98d ago
$129Facebook MarketplaceGraded105d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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