Charizard ex (Illustration Rare)
SimulatedCharizard ex (Illustration Rare) · XY Evolutions · Illustration Rare · 45/108
Character: Charizard
Price History
Opportunity Score
56- 17% below fair value+20 pts
- Sales accelerating+9 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Strong demand (20 sales/mo)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- Low active inventory+4 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral56Charizard ex (Illustration Rare) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-3.8%). Estimated fair value is $1018 against a lowest active listing of $847. Valuation confidence is high based on 6-plus recent comparable sales.
Neutral: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 955.75 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 1031.95 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 949.37 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 4.59 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,058 | eBay | Near Mint | 4h ago |
| $1,050 | Mercari | Near Mint | 2d ago |
| $989 | eBay | Near Mint | 7d ago |
| $1,006 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 13d ago |
| $996 | PWCC | Near Mint | 14d ago |
| $879 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 22d ago |
| $944 | Mercari | Near Mint | 26d ago |
| $867 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 29d ago |
| $894 | eBay | Near Mint | 37d ago |
| $784 | PWCC | Near Mint | 41d ago |
| $808 | eBay | Near Mint | 45d ago |
| $803 | PWCC | Near Mint | 51d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charizard GX (Shiny)Hidden FatesPSA 10Simulated
| $758 | $695 | 8.4% | 2.7% | 9 | 36 |
Base ZardBase SetPSA 10Simulated
| $8,111 | $6,874 | 15.3% | 16.7% | 5 | 50 |
Charizard Holo RareEvolving SkiesSimulated
| $205 | $170 | 17.1% | 20.2% | 23 | 44 |
Charizard ex (Illustration Rare)Evolving SkiesBGS 9.5Simulated
| $530 | $497 | 6.4% | 5.0% | 21 | 30 |
Charizard Ultra RareHidden FatesSimulated
| $451 | $378 | 16.1% | 16.7% | 15 | 43 |
Charizard Secret RareScarlet & Violet 151BGS 9.5Simulated
| $710 | $719 | -1.2% | 2.4% | 3 | 46 |