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Wailmer — Crown Zenith — Common

Wailmer

Simulated

Wailmer · Crown Zenith · Common · 31

Character: Wailmer

high confidencebullish7630d 8.6%
Estimated Fair Value
$16.15
Lowest listing $13.9813.5% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$13.86
Base Case
$16.15
Bull Case
$18.57

Price History

Dec 8Range $43.55 – $75.37Jun 5

Opportunity Score

48
  • 13% below fair value+16 pts
  • Sales accelerating+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • Price up 9% over 30 days+3 pts
  • Strong demand (9 sales/mo)+3 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish76

Wailmer is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+8.6%). Estimated fair value is $16 against a lowest active listing of $14. Valuation confidence is high based on 14-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+8.6% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
14
Sales / Month
9.0
Velocity Score
45/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+20.6%
Confidence
97/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-66.0%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$13.98
All-in cost
$42.98+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$55.92
Expected proceeds
$14.6030% gem → $16.78 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$28.38
Breakeven graded value
$165value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.6dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
64.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-8.0%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
9active listings
Recent sold avg
$68.01mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$62.55cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$45.61
Median
$65.29
Mean
$63.66
Max
$77.39

Showing 24 of 24 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps14.6350%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices16.3925%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection16.4125%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)4.1320%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$62.55TCGPlayerNear Mint8056d agoJan 1View
$65.25TCGPlayerNear Mint9161d agoJan 1View
$68.14TCGPlayerNear Mint8063d agoJan 1View
$69.44Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8565d agoJan 1View
$70.98MercariNear Mint6259d agoJan 1View
$73.34Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9672d agoJun 9View
$75.39PWCCNear Mint7969d agoJan 1View
$77.02Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7456d agoJan 1View
$77.68PWCCNear Mint8569d agoJun 10View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$72.39TCGPlayerNear Mint55d ago
$65.88PWCCNear Mint59d ago
$61.52MercariNear Mint61d ago
$60.74PWCCNear Mint62d ago
$69.46PWCCNear Mint63d ago
$61.70PWCCNear Mint67d ago
$62.11TCGPlayerNear Mint68d ago
$69.06PWCCNear Mint71d ago
$77.39Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint74d ago
$69.00MercariNear Mint75d ago
$76.07eBayNear Mint76d ago
$64.70PWCCNear Mint81d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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