Chikorita
BGS 9SimulatedChikorita · HeartGold SoulSilver · Common · 59
Character: Chikorita
Price History
Opportunity Score
53- 15% below fair value+17 pts
- Sales accelerating+11 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- Strong demand (11 sales/mo)+3 pts
- Population growth slowing+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish27Chikorita (BGS 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-12.7%). Estimated fair value is $100 against a lowest active listing of $86. Valuation confidence is high based on 17-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-12.7% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to -0.1%/mo — supply tightening across 7183 graded.
7,183 graded · 52% gem · -0.1%/mo
- Raw cost
- $85.58
- All-in cost
- $115+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $100
- Expected proceeds
- $26.1530% gem → $30.06 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$88.43
- Breakeven graded value
- $439value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 3.0dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 50.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -8.5%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 11active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $127mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $117cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $79.11
- Median
- $115
- Mean
- $116
- Max
- $150
Showing 19 of 19 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 97.56 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 100.63 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 90.07 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -1.5 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 5.48 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $117 | PWCC | Graded | 64 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $118 | Mercari | Graded | 90 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $120 | eBay | Graded | 92 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $124 | Mercari | Graded | 70 | 58d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $128 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 98 | 63d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $137 | Mercari | Graded | 77 | 69d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $138 | PWCC | Graded | 72 | 60d ago | Jun 10 | View |
| $144 | PWCC | Graded | 75 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $145 | Mercari | Graded | 89 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $146 | PWCC | Graded | 67 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $149 | PWCC | Graded | 62 | 75d ago | Jun 7 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $119 | PWCC | Graded | 55d ago |
| $132 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 55d ago |
| $143 | PWCC | Graded | 59d ago |
| $134 | PWCC | Graded | 61d ago |
| $145 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 61d ago |
| $150 | Mercari | Graded | 69d ago |
| $137 | Mercari | Graded | 72d ago |
| $109 | PWCC | Graded | 79d ago |
| $108 | eBay | Graded | 83d ago |
| $119 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 86d ago |
| $107 | eBay | Graded | 89d ago |
| $116 | PWCC | Graded | 93d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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