Caterpie
PSA 10SimulatedCaterpie · HeartGold SoulSilver · Common · 57
Character: Caterpie
Price History
Opportunity Score
40- Sales accelerating+9 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- 5% below fair value+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Low active inventory+4 pts
- Strong demand (9 sales/mo)+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish15Caterpie (PSA 10) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-18.0%). Estimated fair value is $40 against a lowest active listing of $38. Valuation confidence is high based on 6-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-18.0% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and rising graded population (5.6%/mo).
Risk Indicators
- Rising graded population may pressure prices
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to 0.8%/mo — supply tightening across 1089 graded.
1,089 graded · 51% gem · +0.8%/mo
- Raw cost
- $38.27
- All-in cost
- $67.27+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $40.43
- Expected proceeds
- $10.5530% gem → $12.13 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$56.72
- Breakeven graded value
- $258value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 2.2dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 26.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -9.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 14active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $138mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $124cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $131
- Median
- $139
- Mean
- $141
- Max
- $150
Showing 7 of 7 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 41.89 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 41.28 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 34.61 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -2.81 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 4.23 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $124 | eBay | Graded | 86 | 68d ago | Jun 10 | View |
| $128 | Mercari | Graded | 83 | 65d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $131 | Mercari | Graded | 70 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $131 | eBay | Graded | 64 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $134 | eBay | Graded | 78 | 74d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $143 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 89 | 66d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $149 | Mercari | Graded | 64 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $157 | eBay | Graded | 85 | 60d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $159 | Mercari | Graded | 65 | 63d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $159 | eBay | Graded | 100 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $161 | Mercari | Graded | 61 | 73d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $163 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 62 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $138 | Mercari | Graded | 54d ago |
| $133 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 55d ago |
| $139 | Mercari | Graded | 57d ago |
| $131 | PWCC | Graded | 60d ago |
| $148 | Mercari | Graded | 82d ago |
| $150 | eBay | Graded | 92d ago |
| $150 | Mercari | Graded | 98d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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