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Dec 2Range $438 – $897May 30
Estimated Fair Value
$563
Lowest listing $5286.2% below
Bear Case
$482
Base Case
$563
Bull Case
$645
Price History
Opportunity Score
37- 6% below fair value+7 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- Price up 12% over 30 days+5 pts
- Strong demand (14 sales/mo)+4 pts
- Low active inventory+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish87Gyarados Secret Rare is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+12.1%). Estimated fair value is $563 against a lowest active listing of $528. Valuation confidence is high based on 7-plus recent comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+12.1% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Active Listings
7
Sales / Month
14.0
Velocity Score
70/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
-2.9%
Confidence
91/100
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 542.58 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 616.51 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 564.38 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -0.58 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $464 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 81 | 10d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $466 | PWCC | Near Mint | 88 | 21d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $467 | PWCC | Near Mint | 72 | 18d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $472 | Mercari | Near Mint | 99 | 19d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $478 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 99 | 5d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $483 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 75 | 5d ago | Jun 1 | View |
| $500 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 94 | 2d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $505 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 61 | 8d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $505 | eBay | Near Mint | 68 | 6d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $539 | eBay | Near Mint | 92 | 14d ago | Jun 2 | View |
| $542 | Mercari | Near Mint | 89 | 20d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $546 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 88 | 13d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $536 | PWCC | Near Mint | 17h ago |
| $535 | Mercari | Near Mint | 3d ago |
| $483 | eBay | Near Mint | 5d ago |
| $530 | Mercari | Near Mint | 5d ago |
| $493 | PWCC | Near Mint | 5d ago |
| $469 | PWCC | Near Mint | 6d ago |
| $493 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 7d ago |
| $436 | eBay | Near Mint | 8d ago |
| $502 | eBay | Near Mint | 8d ago |
| $512 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 11d ago |
| $502 | PWCC | Near Mint | 13d ago |
| $546 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 14d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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