Mew Ultra Rare
BGS 9.5SimulatedMew Ultra Rare · Neo Genesis · Ultra Rare · 12/111
Character: Mew
Price History
Opportunity Score
47- 19% below fair value+22 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Population growth slowing+4 pts
- Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish17Mew Ultra Rare (BGS 9.5) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-20.2%). Estimated fair value is $826 against a lowest active listing of $672. Valuation confidence is high based on 17-plus recent comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-20.2% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 894.4 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 792 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 834 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -1.35 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -1.88 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $734 | Mercari | Graded | 85 | 4d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $738 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 92 | 23h ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $767 | PWCC | Graded | 78 | 11d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $772 | eBay | Graded | 75 | 18d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $773 | eBay | Graded | 65 | 2d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $806 | PWCC | Graded | 92 | 5d ago | Jun 3 | View |
| $843 | PWCC | Graded | 65 | 6d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $845 | Mercari | Graded | 93 | 19d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $852 | eBay | Graded | 78 | 19d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $859 | PWCC | Graded | 78 | 11d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $878 | Mercari | Graded | 69 | 17d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $886 | Mercari | Graded | 63 | 10d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $863 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 6d ago |
| $813 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 8d ago |
| $848 | Mercari | Graded | 10d ago |
| $939 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 13d ago |
| $940 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 24d ago |
| $950 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 25d ago |
| $1,008 | PWCC | Graded | 28d ago |
| $994 | Mercari | Graded | 41d ago |
| $990 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 49d ago |
| $935 | eBay | Graded | 50d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lugia (Neo Genesis)Neo GenesisPSA 9Simulated
| $1,292 | $1,118 | 13.4% | 33.1% | 4 | 50 |
Umbreon VMAX (Alt Art)Neo GenesisSimulated
| $1,536 | $1,543 | -0.5% | 17.9% | 3 | 42 |
Mew ex (Illustration Rare)Neo GenesisSimulated
| $982 | $831 | 15.4% | 17.0% | 17 | 42 |
Mew ex (Special Illustration)Evolving SkiesSimulated
| $418 | $371 | 11.2% | 1.5% | 11 | 38 |
Mew VMAX (Alt Art)FossilCGC 10Simulated
| $4,163 | $4,062 | 2.4% | 7.4% | 2 | 51 |
Mew Ultra RareJungleSimulated
| $773 | $664 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 21 | 48 |