Weedle
BGS 9.5SimulatedWeedle · XY Evolutions · Common · 5
Character: Weedle
Price History
Opportunity Score
54- 16% below fair value+19 pts
- Sales accelerating+8 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Strong demand (20 sales/mo)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- Population growth slowing+4 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral42Weedle (BGS 9.5) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-9.0%). Estimated fair value is $23 against a lowest active listing of $20. Valuation confidence is high based on 10-plus modeled comparable sales.
Neutral: softening prices (-9.0% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 3.3%/mo — steady supply across 5088 graded.
5,088 graded · 24% gem · +3.3%/mo
- Raw cost
- $19.58
- All-in cost
- $48.58+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $23.31
- Expected proceeds
- $6.0830% gem → $6.99 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$42.50
- Breakeven graded value
- $186value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 7.2dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 19.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -40.4%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 21active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $149mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $88.79cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $110
- Median
- $170
- Mean
- $158
- Max
- $185
Showing 8 of 8 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 23.11 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 21.61 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 23.14 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -1.32 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 3.86 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $88.79 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 77 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $90.15 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 98 | 60d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $90.68 | Mercari | Graded | 91 | 68d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $91.49 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 84 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $92.55 | PWCC | Graded | 78 | 69d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $94.12 | Mercari | Graded | 79 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $95.16 | Mercari | Graded | 91 | 60d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $96.33 | eBay | Graded | 69 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $96.42 | PWCC | Graded | 65 | 75d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $96.47 | PWCC | Graded | 64 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $96.82 | PWCC | Graded | 90 | 73d ago | Jun 10 | View |
| $98.10 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 98 | 68d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $110 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 64d ago |
| $128 | PWCC | Graded | 71d ago |
| $151 | PWCC | Graded | 78d ago |
| $185 | eBay | Graded | 87d ago |
| $170 | eBay | Graded | 90d ago |
| $177 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 107d ago |
| $170 | PWCC | Graded | 111d ago |
| $175 | PWCC | Graded | 114d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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