Lucario Holo Rare
BGS 10SimulatedLucario Holo Rare · EX Ruby & Sapphire · Holo Rare · 58/109
Character: Lucario
Price History
Opportunity Score
41- 9% below fair value+11 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Strong demand (17 sales/mo)+5 pts
- Low active inventory+4 pts
- Population growth slowing+2 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral44Lucario Holo Rare (BGS 10) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-6.5%). Estimated fair value is $351 against a lowest active listing of $320. Valuation confidence is high based on 6-plus recent comparable sales.
Neutral: softening prices (-6.5% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 368.63 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 373.74 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 348.6 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -1.8 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -1.92 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $331 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 94 | 19d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $333 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 82 | 8d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $349 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 100 | 9d ago | Jun 1 | View |
| $367 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 78 | 16d ago | Jun 3 | View |
| $373 | PWCC | Graded | 65 | 5d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $377 | PWCC | Graded | 61 | 6d ago | May 31 | View |
| $398 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 70 | 21d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $402 | PWCC | Graded | 71 | 10d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $402 | eBay | Graded | 94 | 7d ago | Jun 2 | View |
| $404 | Mercari | Graded | 97 | 8d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $411 | eBay | Graded | 81 | 8d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $419 | Mercari | Graded | 83 | 10d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $374 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 1d ago |
| $398 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 1d ago |
| $349 | eBay | Graded | 5d ago |
| $338 | Mercari | Graded | 8d ago |
| $347 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 10d ago |
| $432 | Mercari | Graded | 18d ago |
| $473 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 18d ago |
| $466 | PWCC | Graded | 19d ago |
| $433 | eBay | Graded | 21d ago |
| $484 | eBay | Graded | 22d ago |
| $453 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 22d ago |
| $471 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 23d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charizard Holo RareEX Ruby & SapphireBGS 9Simulated
| $452 | $393 | 13.0% | 0.7% | 20 | 48 |
Charizard ex (Illustration Rare)EX Ruby & SapphireSimulated
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Umbreon ex (Illustration Rare)EX Ruby & SapphireSimulated
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Mewtwo V (Full Art)EX Ruby & SapphireSimulated
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Lugia Ultra RareEX Ruby & SapphireSimulated
| $301 | $271 | 9.9% | 2.1% | 23 | 36 |
Snorlax V (Full Art)EX Ruby & SapphirePSA 9.5Simulated
| $403 | $386 | 4.2% | 13.3% | 4 | 42 |