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Litleo — Prismatic Evolutions — Common

Litleo

BGS 9.5Simulated

Litleo · Prismatic Evolutions · Common · 15

Character: Litleo

high confidencebearish2730d 22.4%
Estimated Fair Value
$38.04
Lowest listing $32.8013.8% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$30.73
Base Case
$38.04
Bull Case
$45.14

Price History

Dec 8Range $53.15 – $84.76Jun 5

Opportunity Score

49
  • 14% below fair value+16 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (20 sales/mo)+6 pts
  • Population growth slowing+4 pts
  • Sales accelerating+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish27

Litleo (BGS 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-22.4%). Estimated fair value is $38 against a lowest active listing of $33. Valuation confidence is high based on 12-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-22.4% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
12
Sales / Month
19.5
Velocity Score
98/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+5.5%
Total Graded
6,453
Gem Mint
1,881
Population Growth
+2.3%
Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-83.9%
Grading not economical
accelerating population

Population growing 5.5%/mo — supply expanding quickly across 5813 graded.

5,813 graded · 27% gem · +5.5%/mo

Raw cost
$32.80
All-in cost
$61.80+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$38.04
Expected proceeds
$9.9330% gem → $11.41 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$51.87
Breakeven graded value
$237value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
3.4dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
67.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-19.9%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
5active listings
Recent sold avg
$66.89mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$53.55cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$52.84
Median
$68.73
Mean
$68.28
Max
$79.11

Showing 15 of 15 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps38.1650%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices39.3925%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection36.5725%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-1.1750%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)1.0920%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$53.55Facebook MarketplaceGraded8669d agoJan 1View
$53.61TCGPlayerGraded8157d agoJan 1View
$56.70PWCCGraded7171d agoJun 7View
$59.61MercariGraded7756d agoJan 1View
$66.19TCGPlayerGraded9074d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$66.56TCGPlayerGraded56d ago
$52.84MercariGraded61d ago
$57.33MercariGraded65d ago
$59.44TCGPlayerGraded68d ago
$70.42MercariGraded72d ago
$66.50Facebook MarketplaceGraded73d ago
$68.91TCGPlayerGraded75d ago
$78.23MercariGraded86d ago
$72.03Facebook MarketplaceGraded87d ago
$76.67Facebook MarketplaceGraded89d ago
$78.65Facebook MarketplaceGraded97d ago
$79.11MercariGraded99d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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