Unown
CGC 9.5SimulatedUnown · HeartGold SoulSilver · Uncommon · 55
Character: Unown
Price History
Opportunity Score
32- 7% below fair value+8 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Strong demand (12 sales/mo)+4 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish29Unown (CGC 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-10.1%). Estimated fair value is $79 against a lowest active listing of $73. Valuation confidence is high based on 22-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-10.1% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and rising graded population (6.7%/mo).
Risk Indicators
- Rising graded population may pressure prices
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 3.6%/mo — steady supply across 6794 graded.
6,794 graded · 29% gem · +3.6%/mo
- Raw cost
- $73.05
- All-in cost
- $102+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $78.67
- Expected proceeds
- $20.5330% gem → $23.60 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$81.52
- Breakeven graded value
- $391value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 4.8dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 35.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -25.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 11active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $127mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $94.31cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $106
- Median
- $130
- Mean
- $128
- Max
- $139
Showing 9 of 9 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 84.01 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 86.79 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 77.55 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -3.37 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -2.01 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $94.31 | eBay | Graded | 92 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $97.82 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 77 | 61d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $107 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 80 | 61d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $107 | PWCC | Graded | 84 | 73d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $109 | PWCC | Graded | 93 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $114 | Mercari | Graded | 72 | 75d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $117 | PWCC | Graded | 94 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $121 | eBay | Graded | 73 | 65d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $122 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 97 | 68d ago | Jun 10 | View |
| $123 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 98 | 58d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $124 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 62 | 67d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $121 | PWCC | Graded | 59d ago |
| $106 | PWCC | Graded | 65d ago |
| $129 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 83d ago |
| $132 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 88d ago |
| $136 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 89d ago |
| $139 | PWCC | Graded | 90d ago |
| $130 | eBay | Graded | 99d ago |
| $123 | eBay | Graded | 106d ago |
| $138 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 110d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HeracrossHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $184 | $144 | 21.8% | 2.0% | 11 | 60 |
 LaprasHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $176 | $156 | 11.3% | 2.2% | 17 | 36 |
 AzumarillHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $103 | $101 | 1.8% | 4.2% | 6 | 26 |
 ChanseyHeartGold SoulSilverPSA 10Simulated
| $254 | $214 | 15.8% | 6.9% | 20 | 40 |
 FlaaffyHeartGold SoulSilverBGS 9Simulated
| $174 | $156 | 10.7% | 10.8% | 9 | 41 |
 ClefairyHeartGold SoulSilverPSA 9Simulated
| $131 | $132 | -0.6% | 13.1% | 4 | 42 |