Price History
Opportunity Score
47- Sales accelerating+7 pts
- 5% below fair value+6 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Strong demand (19 sales/mo)+6 pts
- Population growth slowing+5 pts
- Low active inventory+4 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral45Pikachu ex (Illustration Rare) (PSA 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-7.9%). Estimated fair value is $1312 against a lowest active listing of $1241. Valuation confidence is high based on 6-plus recent comparable sales.
Neutral: softening prices (-7.9% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 1262.49 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 1346.52 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 1242.28 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -0.89 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 3.54 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,166 | Mercari | Graded | 1d ago |
| $1,223 | PWCC | Graded | 6d ago |
| $1,084 | eBay | Graded | 6d ago |
| $961 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 10d ago |
| $982 | eBay | Graded | 14d ago |
| $996 | Mercari | Graded | 16d ago |
| $1,038 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 16d ago |
| $932 | PWCC | Graded | 16d ago |
| $1,052 | eBay | Graded | 18d ago |
| $1,175 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 19d ago |
| $1,347 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 21d ago |
| $1,245 | Mercari | Graded | 22d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Base ZardBase SetPSA 10Simulated
| $7,505 | $6,843 | 8.8% | 9.3% | 3 | 46 |
Pikachu V (Full Art)Hidden FatesSimulated
| $223 | $180 | 18.9% | 11.8% | 9 | 52 |
Pikachu ex (Illustration Rare)HeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $458 | $381 | 16.8% | 0.7% | 19 | 39 |
Pikachu (Illustrator-style)Scarlet & Violet 151PSA 10Simulated
| $687 | $583 | 15.2% | 7.2% | 6 | 54 |
Rayquaza ex (Illustration Rare)Base SetSimulated
| $887 | $735 | 17.2% | 3.0% | 16 | 51 |
Pikachu VMAX (Alt Art)XY EvolutionsPSA 9.5Simulated
| $1,076 | $1,005 | 6.5% | 0.7% | 13 | 29 |