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Avalugg — Evolving Skies — Uncommon

Avalugg

Simulated

Avalugg · Evolving Skies · Uncommon · 45

Character: Avalugg

high confidenceneutral4330d 8.6%
Estimated Fair Value
$18.35
Lowest listing $16.5210.0% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$15.55
Base Case
$18.35
Bull Case
$21.07

Price History

Dec 8Range $51.83 – $90.63Jun 5

Opportunity Score

41
  • 10% below fair value+12 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Sales accelerating+5 pts
  • Strong demand (16 sales/mo)+5 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral43

Avalugg is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-8.6%). Estimated fair value is $18 against a lowest active listing of $17. Valuation confidence is high based on 14-plus modeled comparable sales.

Neutral: softening prices (-8.6% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
14
Sales / Month
15.5
Velocity Score
78/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+11.9%
Confidence
97/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-62.1%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$16.52
All-in cost
$45.52+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$66.08
Expected proceeds
$17.2530% gem → $19.82 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$28.27
Breakeven graded value
$174value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.1dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
73.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-0.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
4active listings
Recent sold avg
$83.10mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$82.48cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$64.19
Median
$80.26
Mean
$79.97
Max
$91.63

Showing 19 of 19 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps18.1250%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices18.6925%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection16.7725%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)2.3720%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$82.48TCGPlayerNear Mint6458d agoJan 1View
$82.81Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9459d agoJun 6View
$85.28eBayNear Mint7872d agoJan 1View
$85.91MercariNear Mint7269d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$74.43TCGPlayerNear Mint60d ago
$80.35Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint64d ago
$78.68eBayNear Mint68d ago
$79.01Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint70d ago
$81.52TCGPlayerNear Mint70d ago
$84.90MercariNear Mint77d ago
$91.38MercariNear Mint79d ago
$90.24Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint79d ago
$87.85Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint87d ago
$80.26eBayNear Mint89d ago
$85.43TCGPlayerNear Mint90d ago
$91.63PWCCNear Mint93d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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