Pelipper
BGS 10SimulatedPelipper · EX Ruby & Sapphire · Rare · 19
Character: Pelipper
Price History
Opportunity Score
46- 11% below fair value+13 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Population growth slowing+5 pts
- Strong demand (16 sales/mo)+5 pts
- Sales accelerating+3 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral53Pelipper (BGS 10) is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-2.9%). Estimated fair value is $80 against a lowest active listing of $71. Valuation confidence is high based on 15-plus modeled comparable sales.
Neutral: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 4.4%/mo — steady supply across 4230 graded.
4,230 graded · 37% gem · +4.4%/mo
- Raw cost
- $70.54
- All-in cost
- $99.54+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $79.61
- Expected proceeds
- $20.7830% gem → $23.88 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$78.76
- Breakeven graded value
- $381value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 11.9dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 21.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -11.2%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 11active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $215mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $191cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $193
- Median
- $216
- Mean
- $218
- Max
- $239
Showing 8 of 8 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 79.89 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 79.75 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 77.56 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -1.04 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 1.48 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $191 | Mercari | Graded | 69 | 67d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $192 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 67 | 59d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $192 | Mercari | Graded | 67 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $196 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 67 | 61d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $202 | eBay | Graded | 66 | 61d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $219 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 73 | 68d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $233 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 68 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $233 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 60 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $242 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 81 | 65d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $244 | PWCC | Graded | 73 | 60d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $247 | Mercari | Graded | 60 | 60d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $193 | PWCC | Graded | 61d ago |
| $220 | Mercari | Graded | 73d ago |
| $232 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 85d ago |
| $205 | eBay | Graded | 93d ago |
| $213 | eBay | Graded | 96d ago |
| $213 | Mercari | Graded | 101d ago |
| $232 | eBay | Graded | 102d ago |
| $239 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 104d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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