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Tyranitar Ultra Rare

BGS 9Simulated

Tyranitar Ultra Rare · Fossil · Ultra Rare · 48/62

Character: Tyranitar

high confidenceneutral6130d 5.7%
Estimated Fair Value
$638
Lowest listing $56012.3% below
Bear Case
$539
Base Case
$638
Bull Case
$741

Price History

Dec 2Range $479$835May 30

Opportunity Score

38
  • 12% below fair value+14 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Price up 6% over 30 days+2 pts
  • Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral61

Tyranitar Ultra Rare (BGS 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+5.7%). Estimated fair value is $638 against a lowest active listing of $560. Valuation confidence is high based on 13-plus recent comparable sales.

Neutral: rising prices (+5.7% over 30d) with thin liquidity and rising graded population (5.9%/mo).

Risk Indicators

  • Rising graded population may pressure prices
Active Listings
13
Sales / Month
7.5
Velocity Score
38/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+1.0%
Total Graded
5,694
Gem Mint
2,433
Population Growth
+5.9%
Rising — supply pressure

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps631.4850%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices654.6525%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection707.2425%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-2.9750%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)0.220%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$471Facebook MarketplaceGraded8018d agoJan 1View
$482eBayGraded7813d agoJan 1View
$487Facebook MarketplaceGraded936d agoJan 1View
$495Facebook MarketplaceGraded6213d agoJan 1View
$496eBayGraded7410d agoJan 1View
$498TCGPlayerGraded8921h agoJan 1View
$550MercariGraded797d agoJan 1View
$553Facebook MarketplaceGraded7020d agoJun 2View
$554Facebook MarketplaceGraded7620d agoJan 1View
$554TCGPlayerGraded815d agoJun 3View
$566Facebook MarketplaceGraded914d agoJan 1View
$573eBayGraded8921h agoJun 4View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$499MercariGraded9d ago
$540Facebook MarketplaceGraded15d ago
$630MercariGraded27d ago
$642eBayGraded28d ago
$540MercariGraded32d ago
$598Facebook MarketplaceGraded42d ago
$668PWCCGraded42d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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