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Nidoking — Base Set — Rare Holo

Nidoking

CGC 10Simulated

Nidoking · Base Set · Rare Holo · 11

Character: Nidoking

high confidencebearish3230d ▼12.7%
Estimated Fair Value
$120
Lowest listing $10116.0% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$98.98
Base Case
$120
Bull Case
$141

Price History

Dec 8Range $287 – $532Jun 5

Opportunity Score

61
  • 16% below fair value+19 pts
  • Sales accelerating+11 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (13 sales/mo)+4 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish32

Nidoking (CGC 10) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-12.7%). Estimated fair value is $120 against a lowest active listing of $101. Valuation confidence is high based on 17-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-12.7% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
17
Sales / Month
13.0
Velocity Score
65/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+26.6%
Total Graded
4,333
Gem Mint
1,007
Population Growth
-1.0%
Stable supply

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-75.8%
Grading not economical
steady population

Population growing 3.6%/mo — steady supply across 2743 graded.

2,743 graded · 43% gem · +3.6%/mo

Raw cost
$101
All-in cost
$130+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$120
Expected proceeds
$31.4230% gem → $36.11 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$98.66
Breakeven graded value
$498value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.3dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
50.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-0.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
14active listings
Recent sold avg
$331mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$331cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$293
Median
$351
Mean
$357
Max
$451

Showing 25 of 25 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps118.7750%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices116.1625%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection101.2325%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)0.4950%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)5.3320%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$331PWCCGraded9363d agoJun 7View
$336MercariGraded6373d agoJan 1View
$341MercariGraded9763d agoJan 1View
$347MercariGraded8075d agoJan 1View
$352PWCCGraded9755d agoJan 1View
$354eBayGraded9472d agoJan 1View
$358Facebook MarketplaceGraded7375d agoJan 1View
$375TCGPlayerGraded7769d agoJun 9View
$397Facebook MarketplaceGraded6775d agoJan 1View
$401Facebook MarketplaceGraded8770d agoJan 1View
$403PWCCGraded8555d agoJan 1View
$415PWCCGraded9559d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$361Facebook MarketplaceGraded55d ago
$319PWCCGraded58d ago
$293PWCCGraded61d ago
$322Facebook MarketplaceGraded65d ago
$351eBayGraded67d ago
$319Facebook MarketplaceGraded70d ago
$322Facebook MarketplaceGraded70d ago
$299eBayGraded72d ago
$317eBayGraded76d ago
$312PWCCGraded77d ago
$304eBayGraded77d ago
$376MercariGraded82d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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