Blastoise Ultra Rare
CGC 9.5SimulatedBlastoise Ultra Rare · XY Evolutions · Ultra Rare · 14/108
Character: Blastoise
Price History
Opportunity Score
43- 11% below fair value+12 pts
- Reputable seller+8 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- Sales accelerating+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Strong demand (12 sales/mo)+4 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish28Blastoise Ultra Rare (CGC 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-10.2%). Estimated fair value is $315 against a lowest active listing of $281. Valuation confidence is high based on 10-plus recent comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-10.2% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and rising graded population (6.8%/mo).
Risk Indicators
- Rising graded population may pressure prices
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 320.23 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 318.9 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 303.85 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -3.41 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 3.21 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $264 | eBay | Graded | 83 | 7d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $264 | Mercari | Graded | 89 | 17d ago | Jun 4 | View |
| $267 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 83 | 1d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $270 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 66 | 14d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $274 | Mercari | Graded | 79 | 4d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $281 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 83 | 5d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $282 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 77 | 6d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $284 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 89 | 21d ago | Jun 4 | View |
| $287 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 99 | 4d ago | Jun 3 | View |
| $290 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 90 | 21d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $292 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 74 | 18d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $297 | eBay | Graded | 94 | 4d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $295 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 1d ago |
| $266 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 2d ago |
| $285 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 2d ago |
| $263 | Mercari | Graded | 5d ago |
| $269 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 7d ago |
| $287 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 12d ago |
| $270 | eBay | Graded | 13d ago |
| $266 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 13d ago |
| $265 | eBay | Graded | 16d ago |
| $272 | eBay | Graded | 16d ago |
| $268 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 17d ago |
| $276 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 20d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charizard ex (Illustration Rare)XY EvolutionsSimulated
| $695 | $580 | 16.6% | 2.5% | 18 | 44 |
Umbreon Holo RareXY EvolutionsSimulated
| $249 | $218 | 12.4% | 10.6% | 22 | 39 |
Umbreon VMAX (Alt Art)XY EvolutionsBGS 9Simulated
| $1,078 | $975 | 9.6% | 21.7% | 21 | 53 |
Charizard VMAX (Alt Art)XY EvolutionsSimulated
| $1,074 | $933 | 13.1% | 5.6% | 3 | 42 |
Charizard ex (Special Illustration)XY EvolutionsSimulated
| $622 | $547 | 12.1% | 0.8% | 22 | 46 |
Pikachu VMAX (Alt Art)XY EvolutionsPSA 9.5Simulated
| $1,302 | $1,175 | 9.8% | 11.7% | 10 | 49 |