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Flareon — Prismatic Evolutions — Rare

Flareon

Simulated

Flareon · Prismatic Evolutions · Rare · 13

Character: Flareon

high confidenceneutral4530d ▼9.1%
Estimated Fair Value
$20.03
Lowest listing $16.8715.8% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$17.07
Base Case
$20.03
Bull Case
$22.86

Price History

Dec 8Range $62.77 – $91.26Jun 5

Opportunity Score

44
  • 16% below fair value+18 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (20 sales/mo)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
  • Sales accelerating+1 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral45

Flareon is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-9.1%). Estimated fair value is $20 against a lowest active listing of $17. Valuation confidence is high based on 12-plus modeled comparable sales.

Neutral: softening prices (-9.1% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
12
Sales / Month
19.5
Velocity Score
98/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+3.2%
Confidence
97/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-61.6%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$16.87
All-in cost
$45.87+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$67.48
Expected proceeds
$17.6130% gem → $20.24 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$28.26
Breakeven graded value
$176value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
3.3dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
32.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-7.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
21active listings
Recent sold avg
$75.55mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$69.67cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$65.28
Median
$74.22
Mean
$74.45
Max
$84.84

Showing 18 of 18 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps20.2850%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices19.8125%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection19.2525%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)0.6420%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$69.67PWCCNear Mint6474d agoJan 1View
$70.15Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8167d agoJan 1View
$70.59TCGPlayerNear Mint8271d agoJan 1View
$73.64MercariNear Mint7172d agoJun 7View
$78.01Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7171d agoJun 6View
$78.41PWCCNear Mint9458d agoJan 1View
$78.84eBayNear Mint7656d agoJun 6View
$79.76TCGPlayerNear Mint8067d agoJan 1View
$80.37TCGPlayerNear Mint7160d agoJan 1View
$81.88eBayNear Mint9463d agoJan 1View
$82.72Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9967d agoJan 1View
$83.07PWCCNear Mint9772d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$79.93eBayNear Mint55d ago
$75.99MercariNear Mint55d ago
$78.62TCGPlayerNear Mint57d ago
$83.25MercariNear Mint65d ago
$74.70MercariNear Mint69d ago
$66.18eBayNear Mint75d ago
$82.07TCGPlayerNear Mint78d ago
$80.16MercariNear Mint79d ago
$65.77TCGPlayerNear Mint85d ago
$68.81PWCCNear Mint88d ago
$72.14eBayNear Mint91d ago
$69.88MercariNear Mint96d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
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