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Lotad — Evolving Skies — Common

Lotad

PSA 9Simulated

Lotad · Evolving Skies · Common · 32

Character: Lotad

high confidencebearish2230d 19.3%
Estimated Fair Value
$27.66
Lowest listing $24.0812.9% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$22.78
Base Case
$27.66
Bull Case
$32.32

Price History

Dec 8Range $38.07 – $76.69Jun 5

Opportunity Score

46
  • 13% below fair value+15 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (9 sales/mo)+3 pts
  • Sales accelerating+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish22

Lotad (PSA 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-19.3%). Estimated fair value is $28 against a lowest active listing of $24. Valuation confidence is high based on 17-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-19.3% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
17
Sales / Month
9.0
Velocity Score
45/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+3.1%
Total Graded
739
Gem Mint
369
Population Growth
-0.9%
Stable supply

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-86.4%
Grading not economical
steady population

Population growing 3.9%/mo — steady supply across 5865 graded.

5,865 graded · 22% gem · +3.9%/mo

Raw cost
$24.08
All-in cost
$53.08+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$27.66
Expected proceeds
$7.2230% gem → $8.30 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$45.86
Breakeven graded value
$203value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.2dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
71.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
+8.6%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
8active listings
Recent sold avg
$49.20mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$53.44cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$36.65
Median
$53.91
Mean
$54.92
Max
$76.59

Showing 32 of 32 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps28.1950%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices28.3925%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection24.725%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)0.4550%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)0.6120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$53.44PWCCGraded9659d agoJan 1View
$54.82TCGPlayerGraded8270d agoJan 1View
$58.42MercariGraded6255d agoJan 1View
$62.59PWCCGraded8672d agoJan 1View
$62.72MercariGraded8067d agoJan 1View
$63.65MercariGraded7071d agoJan 1View
$65.73eBayGraded8872d agoJan 1View
$66.22Facebook MarketplaceGraded7159d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$56.09MercariGraded55d ago
$54.02Facebook MarketplaceGraded57d ago
$50.88TCGPlayerGraded60d ago
$50.80PWCCGraded61d ago
$52.75TCGPlayerGraded62d ago
$46.92MercariGraded63d ago
$52.70MercariGraded63d ago
$48.18PWCCGraded64d ago
$46.58PWCCGraded68d ago
$41.09TCGPlayerGraded70d ago
$36.65eBayGraded71d ago
$38.65Facebook MarketplaceGraded73d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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