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Charizard ex (Illustration Rare)

Simulated

Charizard ex (Illustration Rare) · EX Ruby & Sapphire · Illustration Rare · 3/109

Character: Charizard

high confidencebearish3830d 8.7%
Estimated Fair Value
$445
Lowest listing $36717.5% below
Bear Case
$381
Base Case
$445
Bull Case
$507

Price History

Dec 2Range $317 – $540May 30

Opportunity Score

47
  • 18% below fair value+20 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Sales accelerating+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
  • Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish38

Charizard ex (Illustration Rare) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-8.7%). Estimated fair value is $445 against a lowest active listing of $367. Valuation confidence is high based on 14-plus recent comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-8.7% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
14
Sales / Month
10.0
Velocity Score
50/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+15.7%
Confidence
97/100

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps454.750%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices416.1425%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection401.125%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)3.1320%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$343Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint732d agoJan 1View
$348PWCCNear Mint985d agoJan 1View
$354PWCCNear Mint7811d agoJan 1View
$366TCGPlayerNear Mint795d agoJan 1View
$369PWCCNear Mint8420d agoJan 1View
$372TCGPlayerNear Mint859d agoJan 1View
$380MercariNear Mint6116d agoJan 1View
$381MercariNear Mint962d agoJan 1View
$384TCGPlayerNear Mint783d agoJun 4View
$390PWCCNear Mint9023h agoJan 1View
$398TCGPlayerNear Mint835d agoJan 1View
$406PWCCNear Mint738d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$362Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint2d ago
$375MercariNear Mint5d ago
$375PWCCNear Mint7d ago
$305PWCCNear Mint11d ago
$408eBayNear Mint19d ago
$372eBayNear Mint21d ago
$380TCGPlayerNear Mint23d ago
$433eBayNear Mint24d ago
$401MercariNear Mint26d ago
$422Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint36d ago
$488eBayNear Mint44d ago
$509MercariNear Mint48d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Related Assets

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Charizard GX (Shiny)Hidden FatesPSA 10Simulated
  • 14% below fair value+16 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
$889$76913.6%9.2%1351
Base ZardBase SetPSA 10Simulated
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • Price up 35% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Sales accelerating+8 pts
$9,601$10,034-4.5%34.7%454
Charizard Holo RareEvolving SkiesSimulated
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • Price up 18% over 30 days+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$244$2373.0%18.1%839
Charizard ex (Illustration Rare)Evolving SkiesBGS 9.5Simulated
  • 6% below fair value+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Price up 17% over 30 days+7 pts
$571$5346.5%16.9%1641
Charizard Ultra RareHidden FatesSimulated
  • 9% below fair value+11 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
$468$4249.4%8.9%1429
Charizard ex (Illustration Rare)XY EvolutionsSimulated
  • 13% below fair value+15 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
$706$61313.1%1.5%2241