Dugtrio
SimulatedDugtrio · XY Evolutions · Rare · 56
Character: Dugtrio
Price History
Opportunity Score
40- 10% below fair value+12 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Strong demand (19 sales/mo)+6 pts
- Price up 7% over 30 days+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish79Dugtrio is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+6.7%). Estimated fair value is $95 against a lowest active listing of $85. Valuation confidence is high based on 18-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+6.7% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $85.09
- All-in cost
- $114+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $340
- Expected proceeds
- $88.8330% gem → $102 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$25.26
- Breakeven graded value
- $437value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.2dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 77.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -2.6%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 6active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $82.21mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $80.09cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $74.62
- Median
- $83.15
- Mean
- $83.33
- Max
- $91.02
Showing 32 of 36 sales · 4 outliers trimmed
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 90.67 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 99.84 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 96.86 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 0.28 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $81.28 | eBay | Near Mint | 55d ago |
| $83.23 | PWCC | Near Mint | 59d ago |
| $81.31 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 59d ago |
| $74.62 | Mercari | Near Mint | 61d ago |
| $69.38 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 62d ago |
| $82.81 | eBay | Near Mint | 67d ago |
| $69.48 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 68d ago |
| $75.95 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 71d ago |
| $82.45 | eBay | Near Mint | 74d ago |
| $83.31 | Mercari | Near Mint | 75d ago |
| $75.79 | PWCC | Near Mint | 75d ago |
| $82.37 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 76d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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