Umbreon Holo Rare
SimulatedUmbreon Holo Rare · XY Evolutions · Holo Rare · 11/108
Character: Umbreon
Price History
Opportunity Score
49- 17% below fair value+20 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Strong demand (18 sales/mo)+5 pts
- Sales accelerating+5 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish28Umbreon Holo Rare is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-22.0%). Estimated fair value is $261 against a lowest active listing of $217. Valuation confidence is high based on 12-plus recent comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-22.0% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 269.17 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 242.93 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 235.22 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 2.59 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $343 | PWCC | Near Mint | 60 | 9d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $360 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 75 | 3d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $364 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 66 | 12d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $364 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 70 | 19d ago | Jun 2 | View |
| $374 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 73 | 9d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $381 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 80 | 21d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $381 | PWCC | Near Mint | 89 | 8d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $394 | eBay | Near Mint | 61 | 13d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $404 | PWCC | Near Mint | 61 | 2d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $416 | PWCC | Near Mint | 85 | 6d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $419 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 92 | 5d ago | Jun 4 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $349 | Mercari | Near Mint | 3h ago |
| $378 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 12h ago |
| $374 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 2d ago |
| $406 | PWCC | Near Mint | 3d ago |
| $362 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 4d ago |
| $418 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 6d ago |
| $353 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 8d ago |
| $374 | Mercari | Near Mint | 10d ago |
| $355 | Mercari | Near Mint | 12d ago |
| $376 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 12d ago |
| $374 | eBay | Near Mint | 14d ago |
| $338 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 16d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charizard ex (Illustration Rare)XY EvolutionsSimulated
| $765 | $587 | 23.4% | 25.8% | 21 | 59 |
Umbreon PromoScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
| $298 | $273 | 8.5% | 9.4% | 7 | 39 |
MoonbreonEvolving SkiesPSA 10Simulated
| $1,544 | $1,325 | 14.2% | 0.8% | 11 | 46 |
Umbreon V (Full Art)Scarlet & Violet 151BGS 9.5Simulated
| $523 | $493 | 5.8% | 14.0% | 8 | 40 |
Umbreon PromoHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $404 | $362 | 10.3% | 11.1% | 19 | 48 |
Umbreon Holo RareEvolving SkiesBGS 9Simulated
| $327 | $267 | 18.3% | 15.1% | 4 | 49 |