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Kakuna — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Common

Kakuna

Simulated

Kakuna · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Common · 14

Character: Kakuna

high confidencebullish9430d 22.6%
Estimated Fair Value
$19.32
Lowest listing $19.041.5% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$16.24
Base Case
$19.32
Bull Case
$22.44

Price History

Dec 8Range $36.30 – $93.61Jun 5

Opportunity Score

34
  • Price up 23% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (12 sales/mo)+4 pts
  • 1% below fair value+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish94

Kakuna is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+22.6%). Estimated fair value is $19 against a lowest active listing of $19. Valuation confidence is high based on 15-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+22.6% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
15
Sales / Month
12.0
Velocity Score
60/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
-11.1%
Confidence
96/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-58.6%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$19.04
All-in cost
$48.04+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$76.16
Expected proceeds
$19.8830% gem → $22.85 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$28.16
Breakeven graded value
$184value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
4.2dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
75.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
+21.0%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
3active listings
Recent sold avg
$51.41mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$62.19cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$35.81
Median
$51.20
Mean
$51.03
Max
$64.82

Showing 14 of 14 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps19.0550%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices21.1625%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection19.7925%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-2.2220%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$62.19eBayNear Mint7268d agoJun 6View
$66.66PWCCNear Mint8067d agoJun 7View
$66.88MercariNear Mint8356d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$63.99PWCCNear Mint57d ago
$58.95eBayNear Mint67d ago
$52.15eBayNear Mint72d ago
$58.67MercariNear Mint74d ago
$51.39MercariNear Mint74d ago
$48.92eBayNear Mint78d ago
$43.29PWCCNear Mint83d ago
$43.14PWCCNear Mint88d ago
$42.17Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint89d ago
$35.81TCGPlayerNear Mint92d ago
$46.43TCGPlayerNear Mint96d ago
$51.01eBayNear Mint98d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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