Gyarados
BGS 10SimulatedGyarados · XY Evolutions · Rare Holo · 34
Character: Gyarados
Price History
Opportunity Score
39- 13% below fair value+16 pts
- Reputable seller+8 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish28Gyarados (BGS 10) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-9.9%). Estimated fair value is $762 against a lowest active listing of $659. Valuation confidence is high based on 13-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-9.9% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and rising graded population (6.1%/mo).
Risk Indicators
- Rising graded population may pressure prices
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to 0.0%/mo — supply tightening across 4551 graded.
4,551 graded · 43% gem · 0.0%/mo
- Raw cost
- $659
- All-in cost
- $688+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $762
- Expected proceeds
- $19930% gem → $229 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$489.50
- Breakeven graded value
- $2,638value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
Not enough recent sales to model liquidity for this asset. At least three in-window sales are needed for a reliable read.
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $217
- Median
- $252
- Mean
- $249
- Max
- $270
Showing 6 of 6 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 805.93 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 755.41 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 785.82 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -3.06 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -0.28 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $247 | PWCC | Graded | 74 | 68d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $249 | Mercari | Graded | 64 | 65d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $249 | PWCC | Graded | 99 | 65d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $270 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 95 | 61d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $272 | Mercari | Graded | 83 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $273 | Mercari | Graded | 84 | 57d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $275 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 61 | 69d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $288 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 93 | 69d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $293 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 79 | 67d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $294 | Mercari | Graded | 91 | 67d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $303 | eBay | Graded | 68 | 56d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $312 | eBay | Graded | 92 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $270 | Mercari | Graded | 67d ago |
| $266 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 93d ago |
| $236 | Mercari | Graded | 94d ago |
| $245 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 99d ago |
| $217 | Mercari | Graded | 102d ago |
| $259 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 106d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CharizardXY EvolutionsBGS 9.5Simulated
| $69,897 | $60,927 | 12.8% | 5.1% | 22 | 44 |
 Mewtwo-EXXY EvolutionsSimulated
| $2,615 | $2,453 | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4 | 39 |
 MewtwoXY EvolutionsSimulated
| $2,260 | $2,074 | 8.2% | 8.7% | 22 | 36 |
Mewtwo-EXXY EvolutionsBGS 9.5Simulated
| $2,890 | $2,422 | 16.2% | 24.8% | 8 | 51 |
 Blastoise-EXXY EvolutionsSimulated
| $1,040 | $866 | 16.7% | 24.2% | 16 | 43 |
 GyaradosBase SetSimulated
| $1,185 | $1,035 | 12.6% | 1.2% | 22 | 38 |