PokéAlpha
Back to dashboard

Dragonite ex (Illustration Rare)

CGC 9Simulated

Dragonite ex (Illustration Rare) · Base Set · Illustration Rare · 60/102

Character: Dragonite

medium confidencebullish6530d 5.0%
Estimated Fair Value
$525
Lowest listing $4798.7% below
Bear Case
$451
Base Case
$525
Bull Case
$594

Price History

Dec 2Range $477 – $765May 30

Opportunity Score

45
  • 9% below fair value+10 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • Low active inventory+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+4 pts
  • Price up 5% over 30 days+2 pts
  • Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish65

Dragonite ex (Illustration Rare) (CGC 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+5.0%). Estimated fair value is $525 against a lowest active listing of $479. Valuation confidence is medium based on 3-plus recent comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+5.0% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Active Listings
3
Sales / Month
4.5
Velocity Score
23/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
-5.9%
Total Graded
4,788
Gem Mint
2,773
Population Growth
-0.9%
Stable supply

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps553.4250%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices550.4925%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection457.9425%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)0.4350%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-1.1920%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$502PWCCGraded9013d agoJan 1View
$514TCGPlayerGraded9210d agoJun 1View
$526MercariGraded7821d agoJun 3View
$530TCGPlayerGraded848d agoMay 31View
$532PWCCGraded7716d agoJan 1View
$548PWCCGraded674d agoJan 1View
$567eBayGraded6816d agoJan 1View
$576Facebook MarketplaceGraded9518d agoJun 4View
$588Facebook MarketplaceGraded6617d agoJun 1View
$591MercariGraded9710d agoJun 4View
$597eBayGraded634d agoJan 1View
$606TCGPlayerGraded875d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$551PWCCGraded4d ago
$579eBayGraded10d ago
$525PWCCGraded10d ago
$551TCGPlayerGraded14d ago
$510PWCCGraded14d ago
$501Facebook MarketplaceGraded15d ago
$521PWCCGraded15d ago
$555TCGPlayerGraded19d ago
$520eBayGraded27d ago
$537eBayGraded30d ago
$558Facebook MarketplaceGraded30d ago
$521PWCCGraded32d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Related Assets

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Base ZardBase SetPSA 10Simulated
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • Price up 35% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Sales accelerating+8 pts
$9,601$10,034-4.5%34.7%454
Rayquaza ex (Illustration Rare)Base SetSimulated
  • 10% below fair value+12 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$913$81810.4%8.8%2038
Base Set Booster Box (Sealed)Base SetSimulated
  • 11% below fair value+13 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (sealed)+6 pts
$45,068$40,08111.1%11.9%2040
Umbreon ex (Special Illustration)Base SetSimulated
  • 16% below fair value+19 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
$2,030$1,70216.2%24.9%1042
Pikachu Ultra RareBase SetBGS 9Simulated
  • Price up 45% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • Low active inventory+6 pts
$1,186$1,1820.4%45.3%443
Mewtwo Ultra RareBase SetPSA 10Simulated
  • Low active inventory+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
$2,018$2,058-2.0%6.3%335