Price History
Opportunity Score
31- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- 5% below fair value+6 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- Strong demand (12 sales/mo)+4 pts
- Low active inventory+2 pts
- Sales accelerating+1 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral41Weedle is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-8.1%). Estimated fair value is $120 against a lowest active listing of $113. Valuation confidence is high based on 8-plus modeled comparable sales.
Neutral: softening prices (-8.1% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $113
- All-in cost
- $142+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $453
- Expected proceeds
- $11830% gem → $136 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$24.01
- Breakeven graded value
- $545value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.5dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 50.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- +3.4%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 23active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $92.18mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $95.32cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $80.81
- Median
- $95.48
- Mean
- $96.84
- Max
- $116
Showing 38 of 38 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 118.92 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 129 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 109.61 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 0.62 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $95.32 | PWCC | Near Mint | 86 | 65d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $97.22 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 99 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $97.35 | eBay | Near Mint | 86 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $97.87 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 71 | 74d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $98.75 | Mercari | Near Mint | 93 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $99.61 | PWCC | Near Mint | 98 | 61d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $103 | Mercari | Near Mint | 65 | 73d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $103 | eBay | Near Mint | 83 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $104 | eBay | Near Mint | 97 | 75d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $104 | PWCC | Near Mint | 77 | 73d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $105 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 85 | 68d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $107 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 62 | 62d ago | Jun 8 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $97.02 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 55d ago |
| $95.89 | PWCC | Near Mint | 57d ago |
| $89.73 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 59d ago |
| $93.76 | PWCC | Near Mint | 59d ago |
| $87.49 | eBay | Near Mint | 61d ago |
| $91.35 | eBay | Near Mint | 63d ago |
| $94.40 | Mercari | Near Mint | 63d ago |
| $93.33 | PWCC | Near Mint | 64d ago |
| $97.03 | eBay | Near Mint | 66d ago |
| $98.56 | eBay | Near Mint | 69d ago |
| $87.00 | PWCC | Near Mint | 73d ago |
| $99.88 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 74d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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