Machoke
SimulatedMachoke · XY Evolutions · Uncommon · 58
Character: Machoke
Price History
Opportunity Score
52- 16% below fair value+19 pts
- Price up 16% over 30 days+6 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Low active inventory+5 pts
- Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish93Machoke is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+15.7%). Estimated fair value is $28 against a lowest active listing of $23. Valuation confidence is high based on 5-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+15.7% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $23.29
- All-in cost
- $52.29+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $93.16
- Expected proceeds
- $24.3130% gem → $27.95 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$27.98
- Breakeven graded value
- $200value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 3.2dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 52.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -15.5%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 10active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $128mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $109cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $106
- Median
- $131
- Mean
- $131
- Max
- $145
Showing 23 of 23 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 27.7 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 26.78 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 28.52 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 0.39 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $109 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 84 | 73d ago | Jun 10 | View |
| $109 | Mercari | Near Mint | 95 | 69d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $116 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 94 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $118 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 77 | 71d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $120 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 62 | 62d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $120 | eBay | Near Mint | 64 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $127 | eBay | Near Mint | 78 | 61d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $128 | PWCC | Near Mint | 74 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $129 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 61 | 69d ago | Jun 10 | View |
| $137 | PWCC | Near Mint | 82 | 59d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $118 | PWCC | Near Mint | 55d ago |
| $124 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 60d ago |
| $129 | PWCC | Near Mint | 60d ago |
| $122 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 64d ago |
| $123 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 67d ago |
| $121 | PWCC | Near Mint | 70d ago |
| $106 | eBay | Near Mint | 76d ago |
| $144 | eBay | Near Mint | 85d ago |
| $139 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 87d ago |
| $143 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 88d ago |
| $143 | Mercari | Near Mint | 89d ago |
| $145 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 94d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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