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Clefairy — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Common

Clefairy

CGC 9.5Simulated

Clefairy · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Common · 35

Character: Clefairy

medium confidencebullish7930d ▲12.8%
Estimated Fair Value
$90.44
Lowest listing $80.3111.2% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$75.08
Base Case
$90.44
Bull Case
$106

Price History

Dec 8Range $56.32 – $96.41Jun 5

Opportunity Score

58
  • 11% below fair value+13 pts
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • Low active inventory+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Population growth slowing+5 pts
  • Price up 13% over 30 days+5 pts
  • High valuation confidence+4 pts
  • Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish79

Clefairy (CGC 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+12.8%). Estimated fair value is $90 against a lowest active listing of $80. Valuation confidence is medium based on 4-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+12.8% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
4
Sales / Month
4.5
Velocity Score
23/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+25.6%
Total Graded
6,192
Gem Mint
1,720
Population Growth
+1.8%
Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-78.4%
Grading not economical
steady population

Population growing 4.6%/mo — steady supply across 4131 graded.

4,131 graded · 52% gem · +4.6%/mo

Raw cost
$80.31
All-in cost
$109+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$90.44
Expected proceeds
$23.6030% gem → $27.13 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$85.71
Breakeven graded value
$419value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.2dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
84.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-2.2%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
4active listings
Recent sold avg
$77.04mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$75.37cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$55.26
Median
$70.35
Mean
$72.91
Max
$96.67

Showing 30 of 30 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps84.2450%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices89.3125%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection89.5225%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-0.9250%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)5.1320%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$75.37PWCCGraded8966d agoJan 1View
$86.45eBayGraded7267d agoJan 1View
$87.73TCGPlayerGraded6465d agoJun 7View
$92.43PWCCGraded8760d agoJun 7View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$89.36Facebook MarketplaceGraded56d ago
$78.22eBayGraded57d ago
$94.84TCGPlayerGraded60d ago
$96.67PWCCGraded61d ago
$86.08PWCCGraded69d ago
$86.18TCGPlayerGraded69d ago
$83.32Facebook MarketplaceGraded71d ago
$77.65eBayGraded73d ago
$80.56Facebook MarketplaceGraded74d ago
$80.33Facebook MarketplaceGraded75d ago
$68.00TCGPlayerGraded77d ago
$73.55PWCCGraded78d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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