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Entei — Crown Zenith — Rare Holo

Entei

PSA 9Simulated

Entei · Crown Zenith · Rare Holo · 21

Character: Entei

high confidenceneutral4230d 4.3%
Estimated Fair Value
$58.26
Lowest listing $49.4315.2% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$47.60
Base Case
$58.26
Bull Case
$68.91

Price History

Dec 8Range $76.79 – $129Jun 5

Opportunity Score

49
  • 15% below fair value+18 pts
  • Sales accelerating+9 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (12 sales/mo)+4 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral42

Entei (PSA 9) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-4.3%). Estimated fair value is $58 against a lowest active listing of $49. Valuation confidence is high based on 17-plus modeled comparable sales.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and rising graded population (6.3%/mo).

Risk Indicators

  • Rising graded population may pressure prices
Active Listings
17
Sales / Month
12.0
Velocity Score
60/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+22.4%
Total Graded
4,139
Gem Mint
2,409
Population Growth
+6.3%
Rising — supply pressure

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-80.6%
Grading not economical
accelerating population

Population growing 6.1%/mo — supply expanding quickly across 5704 graded.

5,704 graded · 42% gem · +6.1%/mo

Raw cost
$49.43
All-in cost
$78.43+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$58.26
Expected proceeds
$15.2130% gem → $17.48 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$63.22
Breakeven graded value
$301value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
3.6dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
27.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-19.9%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
22active listings
Recent sold avg
$117mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$93.42cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$94.08
Median
$111
Mean
$111
Max
$133

Showing 14 of 14 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps57.1750%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices55.9225%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection60.0725%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-3.1650%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)4.4820%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$93.42TCGPlayerGraded8867d agoJan 1View
$95.91eBayGraded9355d agoJun 7View
$96.40TCGPlayerGraded8963d agoJan 1View
$97.49MercariGraded6275d agoJan 1View
$99.68TCGPlayerGraded7356d agoJan 1View
$102Facebook MarketplaceGraded8060d agoJan 1View
$105TCGPlayerGraded9469d agoJan 1View
$106PWCCGraded9474d agoJan 1View
$106MercariGraded8771d agoJan 1View
$107MercariGraded7271d agoJan 1View
$107TCGPlayerGraded6459d agoJan 1View
$108MercariGraded9655d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$115TCGPlayerGraded59d ago
$114eBayGraded59d ago
$117eBayGraded65d ago
$113MercariGraded68d ago
$127TCGPlayerGraded74d ago
$133MercariGraded74d ago
$115TCGPlayerGraded87d ago
$100PWCCGraded87d ago
$94.08TCGPlayerGraded92d ago
$101MercariGraded102d ago
$108MercariGraded104d ago
$102eBayGraded107d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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