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Nidoran ♀ — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Common

Nidoran ♀

BGS 9.5Simulated

Nidoran ♀ · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Common · 29

Character: Nidoran

high confidencebearish3030d 11.2%
Estimated Fair Value
$34.34
Lowest listing $30.5011.2% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$29.49
Base Case
$34.34
Bull Case
$38.96

Price History

Dec 8Range $79.90 – $132Jun 5

Opportunity Score

46
  • 11% below fair value+13 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Low active inventory+5 pts
  • Sales accelerating+5 pts
  • Strong demand (14 sales/mo)+4 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish30

Nidoran ♀ (BGS 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-11.2%). Estimated fair value is $34 against a lowest active listing of $30. Valuation confidence is high based on 5-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-11.2% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
5
Sales / Month
14.0
Velocity Score
70/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+11.8%
Total Graded
1,021
Gem Mint
506
Population Growth
+4.9%
Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-84.9%
Grading not economical
steady population

Population growing 3.0%/mo — steady supply across 5830 graded.

5,830 graded · 42% gem · +3.0%/mo

Raw cost
$30.50
All-in cost
$59.50+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$34.34
Expected proceeds
$8.9630% gem → $10.30 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$50.54
Breakeven graded value
$228value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.8dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
57.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-17.7%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
9active listings
Recent sold avg
$111mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$91.32cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$97.51
Median
$114
Mean
$113
Max
$129

Showing 23 of 23 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps35.5150%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices34.9925%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection31.5925%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-2.4650%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)2.3620%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$91.32Facebook MarketplaceGraded8170d agoJan 1View
$91.59PWCCGraded7259d agoJan 1View
$93.19TCGPlayerGraded6961d agoJan 1View
$94.49PWCCGraded6660d agoJan 1View
$94.96PWCCGraded6969d agoJun 8View
$99.24MercariGraded8768d agoJan 1View
$105PWCCGraded8774d agoJan 1View
$110TCGPlayerGraded7062d agoJan 1View
$114TCGPlayerGraded7775d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$104PWCCGraded54d ago
$103eBayGraded58d ago
$114eBayGraded63d ago
$116TCGPlayerGraded64d ago
$127Facebook MarketplaceGraded68d ago
$107eBayGraded71d ago
$104eBayGraded79d ago
$97.51Facebook MarketplaceGraded81d ago
$99.57MercariGraded81d ago
$123eBayGraded82d ago
$117Facebook MarketplaceGraded85d ago
$119PWCCGraded86d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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