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Greninja Ultra Rare

Simulated

Greninja Ultra Rare · HeartGold SoulSilver · Ultra Rare · 39/123

Character: Greninja

high confidencebullish9330d 13.5%
Estimated Fair Value
$321
Lowest listing $28610.7% below
Bear Case
$274
Base Case
$321
Bull Case
$370

Price History

Dec 2Range $256$439May 30

Opportunity Score

54
  • 11% below fair value+13 pts
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Price up 14% over 30 days+5 pts
  • Strong demand (18 sales/mo)+5 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish93

Greninja Ultra Rare is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+13.5%). Estimated fair value is $321 against a lowest active listing of $286. Valuation confidence is high based on 13-plus recent comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+13.5% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
13
Sales / Month
18.0
Velocity Score
90/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+25.7%
Confidence
97/100

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps287.7650%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices328.2225%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection317.0325%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)5.1320%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$337PWCCNear Mint1002d agoJun 2View
$365Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8111d agoJun 4View
$367MercariNear Mint654d agoJun 2View
$374MercariNear Mint6820d agoJan 1View
$382MercariNear Mint8419d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$349MercariNear Mint6d ago
$339MercariNear Mint8d ago
$316PWCCNear Mint22d ago
$332eBayNear Mint23d ago
$402eBayNear Mint28d ago
$434Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint35d ago
$395PWCCNear Mint36d ago
$335eBayNear Mint52d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Umbreon PromoHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
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  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
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Pikachu ex (Illustration Rare)HeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
  • 12% below fair value+15 pts
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • Low active inventory+6 pts
$449$39312.5%8.6%451
Umbreon Ultra RareHeartGold SoulSilverCGC 9Simulated
  • 15% below fair value+18 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Population growth slowing+7 pts
$668$56715.1%18.0%1147
Gengar Secret RareHeartGold SoulSilverBGS 9Simulated
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • 6% below fair value+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$719$6736.4%6.1%1446
Pikachu ex (Special Illustration)HeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
  • 17% below fair value+20 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$672$55617.3%20.6%2346
Gengar ex (Illustration Rare)HeartGold SoulSilverBGS 10Simulated
  • Low active inventory+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
$696$6930.5%2.5%233