Greninja Ultra Rare
SimulatedGreninja Ultra Rare · HeartGold SoulSilver · Ultra Rare · 39/123
Character: Greninja
Price History
Opportunity Score
54- 11% below fair value+13 pts
- Sales accelerating+10 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Price up 14% over 30 days+5 pts
- Strong demand (18 sales/mo)+5 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish93Greninja Ultra Rare is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+13.5%). Estimated fair value is $321 against a lowest active listing of $286. Valuation confidence is high based on 13-plus recent comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+13.5% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 287.76 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 328.22 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 317.03 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 5.13 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $349 | Mercari | Near Mint | 6d ago |
| $339 | Mercari | Near Mint | 8d ago |
| $316 | PWCC | Near Mint | 22d ago |
| $332 | eBay | Near Mint | 23d ago |
| $402 | eBay | Near Mint | 28d ago |
| $434 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 35d ago |
| $395 | PWCC | Near Mint | 36d ago |
| $335 | eBay | Near Mint | 52d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Umbreon PromoHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $402 | $353 | 12.2% | 5.6% | 14 | 45 |
Pikachu ex (Illustration Rare)HeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $449 | $393 | 12.5% | 8.6% | 4 | 51 |
Umbreon Ultra RareHeartGold SoulSilverCGC 9Simulated
| $668 | $567 | 15.1% | 18.0% | 11 | 47 |
Gengar Secret RareHeartGold SoulSilverBGS 9Simulated
| $719 | $673 | 6.4% | 6.1% | 14 | 46 |
Pikachu ex (Special Illustration)HeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $672 | $556 | 17.3% | 20.6% | 23 | 46 |
Gengar ex (Illustration Rare)HeartGold SoulSilverBGS 10Simulated
| $696 | $693 | 0.5% | 2.5% | 2 | 33 |