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Ampharos — Evolving Skies — Rare

Ampharos

PSA 9Simulated

Ampharos · Evolving Skies · Rare · 56

Character: Ampharos

high confidencebearish3330d ▼5.9%
Estimated Fair Value
$26.47
Lowest listing $23.6410.7% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$23.00
Base Case
$26.47
Bull Case
$29.96

Price History

Dec 8Range $63.18 – $110Jun 5

Opportunity Score

32
  • 11% below fair value+13 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • Strong demand (5 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish33

Ampharos (PSA 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-5.9%). Estimated fair value is $26 against a lowest active listing of $24. Valuation confidence is high based on 9-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-5.9% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and rising graded population (6.8%/mo).

Risk Indicators

  • Rising graded population may pressure prices
Active Listings
9
Sales / Month
5.0
Velocity Score
25/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+2.1%
Total Graded
6,796
Gem Mint
2,369
Population Growth
+6.8%
Rising — supply pressure

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-86.9%
Grading not economical
slowing population

Population growth slowing to -0.2%/mo — supply tightening across 935 graded.

935 graded · 27% gem · -0.2%/mo

Raw cost
$23.64
All-in cost
$52.64+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$26.47
Expected proceeds
$6.9130% gem → $7.94 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$45.73
Breakeven graded value
$202value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.9dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
28.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-16.6%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
18active listings
Recent sold avg
$85.89mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$71.66cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$71.98
Median
$91.90
Mean
$91.28
Max
$108

Showing 10 of 10 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps27.2650%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices27.6625%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection26.9525%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-3.450%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)0.4220%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$71.66PWCCGraded8271d agoJun 9View
$71.80eBayGraded7370d agoJan 1View
$72.18MercariGraded6757d agoJan 1View
$72.80MercariGraded6466d agoJan 1View
$72.92TCGPlayerGraded9969d agoJan 1View
$74.82PWCCGraded6555d agoJan 1View
$77.01TCGPlayerGraded7474d agoJun 8View
$78.50TCGPlayerGraded6174d agoJan 1View
$78.58PWCCGraded6455d agoJan 1View
$78.78MercariGraded6868d agoJan 1View
$79.63eBayGraded8258d agoJun 8View
$80.32PWCCGraded9966d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$81.23MercariGraded58d ago
$88.07PWCCGraded67d ago
$96.58Facebook MarketplaceGraded68d ago
$92.55eBayGraded71d ago
$91.24MercariGraded73d ago
$79.56Facebook MarketplaceGraded80d ago
$71.98Facebook MarketplaceGraded83d ago
$108TCGPlayerGraded96d ago
$103eBayGraded108d ago
$101MercariGraded110d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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