Price History
Opportunity Score
45- 21% below fair value+24 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts
- Sales accelerating+1 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish20Seel is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-23.9%). Estimated fair value is $72 against a lowest active listing of $57. Valuation confidence is high based on 23-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-23.9% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $57.07
- All-in cost
- $86.07+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $228
- Expected proceeds
- $59.5830% gem → $68.48 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$26.49
- Breakeven graded value
- $330value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.1dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 51.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -17.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 22active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $100mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $82.57cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $84.51
- Median
- $104
- Mean
- $104
- Max
- $124
Showing 34 of 35 sales · 1 outlier trimmed
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 77.29 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 65.02 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 65.97 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 0.6 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $82.57 | Mercari | Near Mint | 96 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $84.79 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 65 | 59d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $85.28 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 72 | 69d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $86.01 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 81 | 65d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $86.48 | Mercari | Near Mint | 69 | 61d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $87.53 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 80 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $87.85 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 93 | 75d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $88.22 | Mercari | Near Mint | 70 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $91.76 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 82 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $92.45 | eBay | Near Mint | 64 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $93.50 | Mercari | Near Mint | 89 | 73d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $94.13 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 77 | 67d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $92.92 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 59d ago |
| $103 | PWCC | Near Mint | 59d ago |
| $100 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 60d ago |
| $92.13 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 61d ago |
| $89.95 | Mercari | Near Mint | 61d ago |
| $84.51 | Mercari | Near Mint | 64d ago |
| $87.54 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 64d ago |
| $91.39 | PWCC | Near Mint | 64d ago |
| $88.97 | eBay | Near Mint | 66d ago |
| $110 | PWCC | Near Mint | 71d ago |
| $112 | Mercari | Near Mint | 71d ago |
| $101 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 71d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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