Lugia Holo Rare
PSA 9.5SimulatedLugia Holo Rare · Evolving Skies · Holo Rare · 52/237
Character: Lugia
Price History
Opportunity Score
40- Sales accelerating+11 pts
- Low active inventory+8 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+4 pts
- Price up 5% over 30 days+2 pts
- Strong demand (5 sales/mo)+2 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral58Lugia Holo Rare (PSA 9.5) is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+5.1%). Estimated fair value is $192 against a lowest active listing of $192. Valuation confidence is medium based on 2-plus recent comparable sales.
Neutral: rising prices (+5.1% over 30d) with thin liquidity and rising graded population (5.4%/mo).
Risk Indicators
- Rising graded population may pressure prices
- Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 178.62 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 201.31 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 189.45 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -2.69 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 5.57 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $164 | eBay | Graded | 71 | 13d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $166 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 80 | 9d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $167 | Mercari | Graded | 82 | 15d ago | May 31 | View |
| $178 | eBay | Graded | 99 | 11d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $180 | eBay | Graded | 66 | 11d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $187 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 71 | 5d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $200 | eBay | Graded | 72 | 12d ago | May 31 | View |
| $202 | PWCC | Graded | 89 | 3d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $206 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 62 | 2d ago | Jun 3 | View |
| $206 | eBay | Graded | 89 | 11d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $214 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 79 | 6d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $181 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 5d ago |
| $178 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 6d ago |
| $203 | PWCC | Graded | 12d ago |
| $182 | Mercari | Graded | 13d ago |
| $187 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 23d ago |
| $174 | eBay | Graded | 25d ago |
| $186 | Mercari | Graded | 26d ago |
| $215 | eBay | Graded | 29d ago |
| $201 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 30d ago |
| $194 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 38d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charizard Holo RareEvolving SkiesSimulated
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Charizard ex (Illustration Rare)Evolving SkiesBGS 9.5Simulated
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MoonbreonEvolving SkiesPSA 10Simulated
| $1,595 | $1,490 | 6.5% | 4.6% | 15 | 37 |
Umbreon Holo RareEvolving SkiesBGS 9Simulated
| $306 | $311 | -1.6% | 0.8% | 5 | 29 |
Rayquaza VMAX (Alt Art)Evolving SkiesPSA 10Simulated
| $740 | $612 | 17.4% | 11.8% | 11 | 66 |
Umbreon Secret RareEvolving SkiesCGC 9Simulated
| $692 | $634 | 8.4% | 8.2% | 4 | 45 |