Ledian
SimulatedLedian · HeartGold SoulSilver · Rare · 25
Character: Ledian
Price History
Opportunity Score
38- 8% below fair value+10 pts
- Price up 19% over 30 days+7 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+5 pts
- Sales accelerating+2 pts
- Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish88Ledian is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+18.6%). Estimated fair value is $29 against a lowest active listing of $27. Valuation confidence is high based on 21-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+18.6% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $26.51
- All-in cost
- $55.51+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $106
- Expected proceeds
- $27.6830% gem → $31.81 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$27.83
- Breakeven graded value
- $213value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.6dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 42.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -17.7%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 22active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $125mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $103cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $110
- Median
- $132
- Mean
- $128
- Max
- $143
Showing 25 of 25 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 26.65 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 30.95 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 30.15 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 1 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $103 | PWCC | Near Mint | 96 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $103 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 60 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $104 | Mercari | Near Mint | 79 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $104 | PWCC | Near Mint | 80 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $104 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 89 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $108 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 63 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $109 | eBay | Near Mint | 98 | 69d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $109 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 77 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $110 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 94 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $110 | PWCC | Near Mint | 76 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $113 | Mercari | Near Mint | 62 | 70d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $118 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 84 | 58d ago | Jun 9 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $113 | eBay | Near Mint | 56d ago |
| $114 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 64d ago |
| $110 | Mercari | Near Mint | 67d ago |
| $142 | Mercari | Near Mint | 71d ago |
| $133 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 73d ago |
| $118 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 74d ago |
| $123 | eBay | Near Mint | 77d ago |
| $111 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 77d ago |
| $131 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 80d ago |
| $126 | PWCC | Near Mint | 82d ago |
| $133 | Mercari | Near Mint | 83d ago |
| $127 | PWCC | Near Mint | 84d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HeracrossHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $174 | $145 | 16.9% | 2.0% | 7 | 49 |
 LaprasHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $189 | $157 | 16.8% | 2.2% | 13 | 48 |
 AzumarillHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $105 | $95.86 | 8.4% | 4.2% | 10 | 42 |
 ChanseyHeartGold SoulSilverPSA 10Simulated
| $267 | $217 | 18.7% | 6.9% | 20 | 53 |
 FlaaffyHeartGold SoulSilverBGS 9Simulated
| $178 | $152 | 14.6% | 10.8% | 18 | 45 |
 ClefairyHeartGold SoulSilverPSA 9Simulated
| $130 | $117 | 10.1% | 13.1% | 4 | 55 |