PokéAlpha
Live data not configuredNumbers are backed by a real but dated snapshot. Enable real marketplace listings for live intelligence.How to enable
Back to dashboard
Beedrill — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Rare

Beedrill

BGS 9.5Simulated

Beedrill · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Rare · 15

Character: Beedrill

high confidencebearish2230d 15.4%
Estimated Fair Value
$16.50
Lowest listing $13.7416.7% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$13.97
Base Case
$16.50
Bull Case
$18.94

Price History

Dec 8Range $55.78 – $108Jun 5

Opportunity Score

49
  • 17% below fair value+20 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • Population growth slowing+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts
  • Sales accelerating+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish22

Beedrill (BGS 9.5) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-15.4%). Estimated fair value is $16 against a lowest active listing of $14. Valuation confidence is high based on 22-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-15.4% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
22
Sales / Month
10.0
Velocity Score
50/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+4.1%
Total Graded
4,772
Gem Mint
2,211
Population Growth
+1.2%
Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-89.9%
Grading not economical
steady population

Population growing 4.3%/mo — steady supply across 7288 graded.

7,288 graded · 59% gem · +4.3%/mo

Raw cost
$13.74
All-in cost
$42.74+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$16.50
Expected proceeds
$4.3130% gem → $4.95 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$38.43
Breakeven graded value
$164value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.5dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
89.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
+12.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
2active listings
Recent sold avg
$83.02mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$93.04cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$73.26
Median
$87.45
Mean
$87.94
Max
$105

Showing 30 of 30 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps16.9850%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices16.525%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection15.3725%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-0.650%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)0.8220%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$93.04Facebook MarketplaceGraded7665d agoJan 1View
$98.64PWCCGraded7274d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$79.90PWCCGraded56d ago
$87.50Facebook MarketplaceGraded57d ago
$76.83Facebook MarketplaceGraded57d ago
$77.06PWCCGraded57d ago
$80.68Facebook MarketplaceGraded60d ago
$84.77TCGPlayerGraded61d ago
$87.39eBayGraded62d ago
$74.43TCGPlayerGraded64d ago
$73.26MercariGraded67d ago
$81.55PWCCGraded68d ago
$78.33MercariGraded68d ago
$79.67PWCCGraded70d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Related Assets

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Pikachu (Illustrator-style) — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Special Illustration Rare
Pikachu (Illustrator-style)Scarlet & Violet 151PSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $97.89 · sales-derived, ungradedView $82.96 · TCGPlayer
  • Low active inventory+9 pts
  • 7% below fair value+8 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$508$4727.1%5.3%136
Pikachu — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Common
PikachuScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
  • 12% below fair value+14 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$2,819$2,48511.8%10.4%1437
Scarlet & Violet 151 Booster Box — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Sealed
Scarlet & Violet 151 Booster BoxScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
  • 14% below fair value+16 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (sealed)+6 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$3,334$2,87713.7%5.5%839
Blastoise ex — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Double Rare
Blastoise exScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • Low active inventory+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$498$4803.5%15.5%340
Blastoise ex — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Double Rare
Blastoise exScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
  • 12% below fair value+14 pts
  • Sales accelerating+11 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$470$41511.8%12.8%855
Charmeleon — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Uncommon
CharmeleonScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
  • 9% below fair value+10 pts
  • Sales accelerating+9 pts
  • Low active inventory+8 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$113$1038.6%9.6%249