Charizard ex (Illustration Rare)
BGS 9.5SimulatedCharizard ex (Illustration Rare) · Evolving Skies · Illustration Rare · 109/237
Character: Charizard
Price History
Opportunity Score
53- 14% below fair value+16 pts
- Sales accelerating+10 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- Strong demand (11 sales/mo)+3 pts
- Population growth slowing+3 pts
- Price up 5% over 30 days+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish65Charizard ex (Illustration Rare) (BGS 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+5.0%). Estimated fair value is $574 against a lowest active listing of $493. Valuation confidence is high based on 22-plus recent comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+5.0% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 547.95 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 558.37 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 563.1 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -1.59 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 5.21 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $464 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 91 | 19d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $465 | Mercari | Graded | 77 | 13d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $467 | Mercari | Graded | 100 | 17d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $479 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 62 | 3d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $483 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 89 | 8d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $512 | Mercari | Graded | 100 | 7d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $526 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 96 | 8d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $540 | Mercari | Graded | 83 | 21h ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $543 | Mercari | Graded | 86 | 17d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $580 | Mercari | Graded | 79 | 12d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $583 | PWCC | Graded | 62 | 16d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $510 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 2d ago |
| $471 | Mercari | Graded | 5d ago |
| $491 | Mercari | Graded | 7d ago |
| $523 | Mercari | Graded | 7d ago |
| $538 | PWCC | Graded | 20d ago |
| $596 | eBay | Graded | 23d ago |
| $591 | Mercari | Graded | 34d ago |
| $577 | Mercari | Graded | 36d ago |
| $527 | PWCC | Graded | 45d ago |
| $541 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 45d ago |
| $500 | PWCC | Graded | 56d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charizard GX (Shiny)Hidden FatesPSA 10Simulated
| $757 | $710 | 6.2% | 2.7% | 16 | 29 |
Base ZardBase SetPSA 10Simulated
| $7,552 | $6,702 | 11.3% | 16.7% | 9 | 41 |
Charizard Holo RareEvolving SkiesSimulated
| $215 | $172 | 19.9% | 20.2% | 11 | 52 |
Charizard Ultra RareHidden FatesSimulated
| $438 | $382 | 12.8% | 16.7% | 17 | 36 |
Charizard ex (Illustration Rare)XY EvolutionsSimulated
| $953 | $883 | 7.4% | 3.8% | 6 | 35 |
Charizard Secret RareScarlet & Violet 151BGS 9.5Simulated
| $672 | $610 | 9.2% | 2.4% | 20 | 36 |