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Whimsicott — Prismatic Evolutions — Rare

Whimsicott

PSA 9.5Simulated

Whimsicott · Prismatic Evolutions · Rare · 8

Character: Whimsicott

high confidenceneutral4730d 5.0%
Estimated Fair Value
$24.19
Lowest listing $19.5719.1% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$20.15
Base Case
$24.19
Bull Case
$28.20

Price History

Dec 8Range $64.37 – $114Jun 5

Opportunity Score

55
  • 19% below fair value+22 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
  • Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts
  • Sales accelerating+3 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral47

Whimsicott (PSA 9.5) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-5.0%). Estimated fair value is $24 against a lowest active listing of $20. Valuation confidence is high based on 22-plus modeled comparable sales.

Neutral: softening prices (-5.0% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
22
Sales / Month
10.5
Velocity Score
53/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+7.4%
Total Graded
5,324
Gem Mint
1,803
Population Growth
-0.3%
Stable supply

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-87.0%
Grading not economical
slowing population

Population growth slowing to -0.2%/mo — supply tightening across 3999 graded.

3,999 graded · 27% gem · -0.2%/mo

Raw cost
$19.57
All-in cost
$48.57+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$24.19
Expected proceeds
$6.3130% gem → $7.26 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$42.26
Breakeven graded value
$186value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.1dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
25.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-14.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
15active listings
Recent sold avg
$86.52mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$74.32cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$82.67
Median
$90.15
Mean
$89.84
Max
$99.81

Showing 10 of 10 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps24.1550%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices23.6325%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection23.2725%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)0.1750%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)1.4920%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$74.32PWCCGraded7559d agoJan 1View
$75.38MercariGraded7775d agoJun 10View
$75.83eBayGraded10058d agoJan 1View
$78.27MercariGraded9957d agoJan 1View
$85.48Facebook MarketplaceGraded7869d agoJan 1View
$87.32Facebook MarketplaceGraded9560d agoJan 1View
$88.78eBayGraded8059d agoJan 1View
$89.57eBayGraded8566d agoJan 1View
$90.63Facebook MarketplaceGraded8369d agoJun 6View
$92.61PWCCGraded8068d agoJan 1View
$92.68TCGPlayerGraded7071d agoJan 1View
$93.73eBayGraded8265d agoJun 10View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$82.67Facebook MarketplaceGraded63d ago
$85.53PWCCGraded64d ago
$90.45eBayGraded89d ago
$84.12Facebook MarketplaceGraded89d ago
$89.85TCGPlayerGraded89d ago
$91.58PWCCGraded92d ago
$99.81TCGPlayerGraded99d ago
$93.41MercariGraded105d ago
$93.83MercariGraded107d ago
$87.15Facebook MarketplaceGraded111d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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