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Lugia Secret Rare

Simulated

Lugia Secret Rare · Crown Zenith · Secret Rare · 140/159

Character: Lugia

medium confidenceneutral5730d 2.0%
Estimated Fair Value
$439
Lowest listing $37514.6% below
Bear Case
$384
Base Case
$439
Bull Case
$495

Price History

Dec 2Range $408 – $653May 30

Opportunity Score

44
  • 15% below fair value+17 pts
  • Sales accelerating+11 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral57

Lugia Secret Rare is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+2.0%). Estimated fair value is $439 against a lowest active listing of $375. Valuation confidence is medium based on 13-plus recent comparable sales.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
13
Sales / Month
3.5
Velocity Score
18/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+27.5%
Confidence
66/100

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps412.4950%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices420.6925%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection417.5425%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)5.5120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$444eBayNear Mint6917d agoJan 1View
$464eBayNear Mint7717d agoJun 3View
$465TCGPlayerNear Mint844d agoJan 1View
$472eBayNear Mint645d agoJan 1View
$495eBayNear Mint9513d agoJun 1View
$502Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint713d agoJan 1View
$502eBayNear Mint7821d agoJan 1View
$516PWCCNear Mint6219d agoJun 1View
$522eBayNear Mint8610d agoJan 1View
$536PWCCNear Mint7114d agoJan 1View
$536MercariNear Mint9612d agoJan 1View
$545MercariNear Mint982d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$459MercariNear Mint3d ago
$476PWCCNear Mint5d ago
$514eBayNear Mint6d ago
$505PWCCNear Mint9d ago
$493PWCCNear Mint9d ago
$515MercariNear Mint10d ago
$489TCGPlayerNear Mint14d ago
$531TCGPlayerNear Mint16d ago
$554eBayNear Mint18d ago
$544eBayNear Mint20d ago
$571PWCCNear Mint20d ago
$540eBayNear Mint22d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Related Assets

Same character or set.

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  • Reputable seller+7 pts
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  • 16% below fair value+19 pts
  • Sales accelerating+9 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
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Lugia Holo RareBase SetSimulated
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Lugia (Neo Genesis)Neo GenesisPSA 9Simulated
  • 13% below fair value+15 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
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Lugia Holo RareEvolving SkiesPSA 9.5Simulated
  • 9% below fair value+11 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
$174$1589.2%1.7%1334
Lugia Secret RareHidden FatesSimulated
  • Price up 20% over 30 days+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
$489$4870.4%19.8%2030