Chikorita
SimulatedChikorita · HeartGold SoulSilver · Common · 59
Character: Chikorita
Price History
Opportunity Score
51- 21% below fair value+25 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Sales accelerating+5 pts
- Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish21Chikorita is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-15.4%). Estimated fair value is $36 against a lowest active listing of $28. Valuation confidence is high based on 16-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-15.4% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $28.20
- All-in cost
- $57.20+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $113
- Expected proceeds
- $29.4430% gem → $33.84 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$27.76
- Breakeven graded value
- $219value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 2.1dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 50.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- +3.7%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 8active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $101mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $105cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $95.07
- Median
- $106
- Mean
- $105
- Max
- $113
Showing 12 of 13 sales · 1 outlier trimmed
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 35.75 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 33.05 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 35.51 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 2.57 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $105 | Mercari | Near Mint | 67 | 69d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $108 | Mercari | Near Mint | 88 | 70d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $110 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 71 | 59d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $117 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 73 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $117 | PWCC | Near Mint | 88 | 65d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $119 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 74 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $121 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 60 | 63d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $131 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 76 | 65d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $111 | Mercari | Near Mint | 65d ago |
| $107 | eBay | Near Mint | 66d ago |
| $104 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 71d ago |
| $101 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 72d ago |
| $101 | eBay | Near Mint | 74d ago |
| $88.47 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 77d ago |
| $95.07 | eBay | Near Mint | 86d ago |
| $102 | Mercari | Near Mint | 88d ago |
| $106 | Mercari | Near Mint | 96d ago |
| $113 | Mercari | Near Mint | 99d ago |
| $105 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 107d ago |
| $109 | PWCC | Near Mint | 108d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HeracrossHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $172 | $142 | 17.6% | 3.1% | 13 | 51 |
 LaprasHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $182 | $163 | 10.5% | 1.9% | 5 | 44 |
 AzumarillHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $104 | $101 | 2.7% | 3.1% | 10 | 26 |
 ChanseyHeartGold SoulSilverPSA 10Simulated
| $260 | $246 | 5.3% | 3.3% | 7 | 33 |
 FlaaffyHeartGold SoulSilverBGS 9Simulated
| $180 | $156 | 13.4% | 12.9% | 12 | 44 |
 ClefairyHeartGold SoulSilverPSA 9Simulated
| $129 | $109 | 15.7% | 12.8% | 15 | 58 |