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Lugia V (Full Art)

BGS 10Simulated

Lugia V (Full Art) · Evolving Skies · Full Art · 24/237

Character: Lugia

high confidencebullish8530d 17.2%
Estimated Fair Value
$451
Lowest listing $4109.1% below
Bear Case
$379
Base Case
$451
Bull Case
$523

Price History

Dec 2Range $379$568May 30

Opportunity Score

44
  • 9% below fair value+11 pts
  • Price up 17% over 30 days+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Sales accelerating+4 pts
  • Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish85

Lugia V (Full Art) (BGS 10) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+17.2%). Estimated fair value is $451 against a lowest active listing of $410. Valuation confidence is high based on 17-plus recent comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+17.2% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and rising graded population (6.6%/mo).

Risk Indicators

  • Rising graded population may pressure prices
Active Listings
17
Sales / Month
10.0
Velocity Score
50/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+10.5%
Total Graded
6,235
Gem Mint
1,493
Population Growth
+6.6%
Rising — supply pressure

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps442.4350%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices458.9225%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection482.2525%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-3.350%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)2.120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$443eBayGraded7621h agoJan 1View
$443PWCCGraded8816d agoJun 2View
$447TCGPlayerGraded6817d agoJan 1View
$453Facebook MarketplaceGraded805d agoJan 1View
$481eBayGraded10021h agoJan 1View
$484PWCCGraded8020d agoJun 3View
$494TCGPlayerGraded8521d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$464MercariGraded13h ago
$447Facebook MarketplaceGraded4d ago
$473PWCCGraded6d ago
$514Facebook MarketplaceGraded10d ago
$521Facebook MarketplaceGraded11d ago
$495TCGPlayerGraded11d ago
$491eBayGraded12d ago
$565eBayGraded13d ago
$518eBayGraded15d ago
$467MercariGraded16d ago
$546MercariGraded18d ago
$497PWCCGraded18d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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