Swampert
PSA 9.5SimulatedSwampert · EX Ruby & Sapphire · Rare · 23
Character: Swampert
Price History
Opportunity Score
48- 9% below fair value+10 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Sales accelerating+5 pts
- Population growth slowing+5 pts
- Strong demand (15 sales/mo)+5 pts
- Price up 8% over 30 days+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish77Swampert (PSA 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+8.3%). Estimated fair value is $43 against a lowest active listing of $40. Valuation confidence is high based on 16-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+8.3% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 3.1%/mo — steady supply across 3687 graded.
3,687 graded · 24% gem · +3.1%/mo
- Raw cost
- $39.71
- All-in cost
- $68.71+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $43.46
- Expected proceeds
- $11.3430% gem → $13.04 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$57.37
- Breakeven graded value
- $263value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 2.0dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 53.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -29.2%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 9active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $91.12mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $64.53cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $75.32
- Median
- $103
- Mean
- $101
- Max
- $116
Showing 13 of 15 sales · 2 outliers trimmed
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 40.91 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 46.53 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 42.6 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -0.94 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 2.66 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $64.53 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 69 | 56d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $65.35 | PWCC | Graded | 99 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $66.91 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 80 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $68.87 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 63 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $70.36 | Mercari | Graded | 87 | 73d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $71.14 | eBay | Graded | 96 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $73.92 | eBay | Graded | 72 | 65d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $77.97 | Mercari | Graded | 77 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $82.40 | PWCC | Graded | 93 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $68.51 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 55d ago |
| $71.56 | eBay | Graded | 56d ago |
| $75.32 | Mercari | Graded | 58d ago |
| $93.42 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 62d ago |
| $95.53 | PWCC | Graded | 64d ago |
| $103 | Mercari | Graded | 67d ago |
| $93.42 | eBay | Graded | 71d ago |
| $104 | Mercari | Graded | 73d ago |
| $105 | Mercari | Graded | 79d ago |
| $102 | eBay | Graded | 81d ago |
| $116 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 93d ago |
| $108 | PWCC | Graded | 98d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 SharpedoEX Ruby & SapphireSimulated
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 SlakingEX Ruby & SapphireSimulated
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