Pikachu ex (Special Illustration)
SimulatedPikachu ex (Special Illustration) · HeartGold SoulSilver · Special Illustration Rare · 122/123
Character: Pikachu
Price History
Opportunity Score
44- 10% below fair value+12 pts
- Price up 32% over 30 days+8 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- Strong demand (18 sales/mo)+5 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish99Pikachu ex (Special Illustration) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+31.8%). Estimated fair value is $794 against a lowest active listing of $713. Valuation confidence is high based on 19-plus recent comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+31.8% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 741.83 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 837.49 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 843.23 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 0.31 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $627 | eBay | Near Mint | 2d ago |
| $655 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 2d ago |
| $590 | PWCC | Near Mint | 3d ago |
| $638 | Mercari | Near Mint | 5d ago |
| $584 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 14d ago |
| $659 | Mercari | Near Mint | 18d ago |
| $665 | Mercari | Near Mint | 24d ago |
| $641 | eBay | Near Mint | 24d ago |
| $722 | Mercari | Near Mint | 26d ago |
| $683 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 26d ago |
| $740 | Mercari | Near Mint | 30d ago |
| $735 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 30d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Umbreon PromoHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $375 | $315 | 15.9% | 1.5% | 12 | 42 |
Pikachu V (Full Art)Hidden FatesSimulated
| $241 | $203 | 15.9% | 3.2% | 19 | 46 |
Pikachu ex (Illustration Rare)HeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $486 | $424 | 12.8% | 7.0% | 22 | 42 |
Pikachu (Illustrator-style)Scarlet & Violet 151PSA 10Simulated
| $684 | $607 | 11.3% | 15.1% | 14 | 48 |
Umbreon Ultra RareHeartGold SoulSilverCGC 9Simulated
| $625 | $552 | 11.7% | 7.6% | 17 | 41 |
Pikachu VMAX (Alt Art)XY EvolutionsPSA 9.5Simulated
| $1,047 | $947 | 9.5% | 6.5% | 6 | 42 |