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Lombre — Evolving Skies — Uncommon

Lombre

BGS 9.5Simulated

Lombre · Evolving Skies · Uncommon · 33

Character: Lombre

high confidenceneutral4930d 3.0%
Estimated Fair Value
$34.26
Lowest listing $30.2911.6% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$27.73
Base Case
$34.26
Bull Case
$40.55

Price History

Dec 8Range $86.75 – $129Jun 5

Opportunity Score

40
  • 12% below fair value+14 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
  • Strong demand (13 sales/mo)+4 pts
  • Population growth slowing+3 pts
  • Sales accelerating+2 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral49

Lombre (BGS 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-3.0%). Estimated fair value is $34 against a lowest active listing of $30. Valuation confidence is high based on 9-plus modeled comparable sales.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
9
Sales / Month
13.0
Velocity Score
65/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+5.0%
Total Graded
3,989
Gem Mint
1,840
Population Growth
+3.2%
Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-84.9%
Grading not economical
slowing population

Population growth slowing to -0.5%/mo — supply tightening across 7393 graded.

7,393 graded · 24% gem · -0.5%/mo

Raw cost
$30.29
All-in cost
$59.29+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$34.26
Expected proceeds
$8.9430% gem → $10.28 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$50.35
Breakeven graded value
$227value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
4.0dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
43.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-19.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
13active listings
Recent sold avg
$101mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$80.84cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$92.92
Median
$106
Mean
$106
Max
$119

Showing 15 of 17 sales · 2 outliers trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps35.3350%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices34.3525%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection32.8525%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-1.650%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)1.0120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$80.84PWCCGraded7656d agoJan 1View
$81.41TCGPlayerGraded6556d agoJan 1View
$84.31Facebook MarketplaceGraded7172d agoJan 1View
$87.44eBayGraded9158d agoJan 1View
$88.66TCGPlayerGraded9969d agoJan 1View
$92.02TCGPlayerGraded9967d agoJan 1View
$92.35Facebook MarketplaceGraded6467d agoJun 10View
$95.08MercariGraded9858d agoJan 1View
$96.66PWCCGraded7756d agoJan 1View
$101TCGPlayerGraded9560d agoJun 9View
$103MercariGraded6368d agoJun 9View
$103eBayGraded7855d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$89.25PWCCGraded55d ago
$102Facebook MarketplaceGraded60d ago
$94.84MercariGraded62d ago
$107Facebook MarketplaceGraded69d ago
$110Facebook MarketplaceGraded73d ago
$108PWCCGraded78d ago
$92.92MercariGraded80d ago
$102MercariGraded82d ago
$94.77PWCCGraded85d ago
$106MercariGraded89d ago
$115TCGPlayerGraded94d ago
$102eBayGraded97d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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