Lairon
BGS 9SimulatedLairon · EX Ruby & Sapphire · Uncommon · 37
Character: Lairon
Price History
Opportunity Score
44- 13% below fair value+15 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Sales accelerating+6 pts
- Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish14Lairon (BGS 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-19.2%). Estimated fair value is $28 against a lowest active listing of $24. Valuation confidence is high based on 20-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-19.2% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and rising graded population (6.7%/mo).
Risk Indicators
- Rising graded population may pressure prices
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 4.0%/mo — steady supply across 8057 graded.
8,057 graded · 49% gem · +4.0%/mo
- Raw cost
- $24.36
- All-in cost
- $53.36+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $28.03
- Expected proceeds
- $7.3230% gem → $8.41 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$46.04
- Breakeven graded value
- $204value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 0.6dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 49.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -9.3%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 22active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $110mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $99.60cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $84.70
- Median
- $108
- Mean
- $106
- Max
- $120
Showing 32 of 32 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 29.84 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 27.97 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 25.17 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -3.34 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 2.84 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $99.60 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 100 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $100 | eBay | Graded | 71 | 74d ago | Jun 10 | View |
| $101 | PWCC | Graded | 66 | 75d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $102 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 94 | 66d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $102 | PWCC | Graded | 78 | 59d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $104 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 68 | 67d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $107 | eBay | Graded | 63 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $108 | Mercari | Graded | 72 | 64d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $109 | PWCC | Graded | 95 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $110 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 98 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $111 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 69 | 67d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $113 | Mercari | Graded | 72 | 67d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $115 | Mercari | Graded | 54d ago |
| $114 | Mercari | Graded | 55d ago |
| $110 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 55d ago |
| $116 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 55d ago |
| $113 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 57d ago |
| $115 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 57d ago |
| $114 | PWCC | Graded | 60d ago |
| $106 | Mercari | Graded | 61d ago |
| $112 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 62d ago |
| $113 | PWCC | Graded | 66d ago |
| $116 | PWCC | Graded | 69d ago |
| $120 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 72d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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