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Iron Hands ex — Prismatic Evolutions — Double Rare

Iron Hands ex

CGC 9Simulated

Iron Hands ex · Prismatic Evolutions · Double Rare · 31

Character: Iron

high confidencebearish2430d 22.8%
Estimated Fair Value
$72.52
Lowest listing $59.3418.2% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$60.70
Base Case
$72.52
Bull Case
$83.86

Price History

Dec 8Range $58.96 – $101Jun 5

Opportunity Score

50
  • 18% below fair value+21 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (16 sales/mo)+5 pts
  • Population growth slowing+4 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish24

Iron Hands ex (CGC 9) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-22.8%). Estimated fair value is $73 against a lowest active listing of $59. Valuation confidence is high based on 22-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-22.8% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
22
Sales / Month
16.0
Velocity Score
80/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
-9.9%
Total Graded
8,198
Gem Mint
3,635
Population Growth
+2.5%
Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-78.6%
Grading not economical
accelerating population

Population growing 5.9%/mo — supply expanding quickly across 1107 graded.

1,107 graded · 35% gem · +5.9%/mo

Raw cost
$59.34
All-in cost
$88.34+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$72.52
Expected proceeds
$18.9330% gem → $21.76 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$69.41
Breakeven graded value
$338value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.7dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
76.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-6.2%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
4active listings
Recent sold avg
$85.26mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$79.97cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$73.73
Median
$91.80
Mean
$90.46
Max
$108

Showing 26 of 26 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps80.3150%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices68.2925%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection70.7225%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-1.2350%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-1.9820%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$79.97MercariGraded8172d agoJan 1View
$95.38MercariGraded8969d agoJan 1View
$97.12PWCCGraded6970d agoJun 7View
$101MercariGraded8660d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$96.64eBayGraded55d ago
$95.40eBayGraded56d ago
$83.29MercariGraded60d ago
$83.59MercariGraded62d ago
$79.50eBayGraded66d ago
$74.60Facebook MarketplaceGraded68d ago
$73.73PWCCGraded71d ago
$79.81PWCCGraded74d ago
$84.27TCGPlayerGraded77d ago
$80.36Facebook MarketplaceGraded77d ago
$91.36eBayGraded83d ago
$92.36eBayGraded88d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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