Hitmontop
SimulatedHitmontop · HeartGold SoulSilver · Rare Holo · 5
Character: Hitmontop
Price History
Opportunity Score
40- 11% below fair value+13 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Strong demand (18 sales/mo)+6 pts
- Sales accelerating+2 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral49Hitmontop is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-6.9%). Estimated fair value is $49 against a lowest active listing of $44. Valuation confidence is high based on 13-plus modeled comparable sales.
Neutral: softening prices (-6.9% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $43.73
- All-in cost
- $72.73+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $175
- Expected proceeds
- $45.6530% gem → $52.48 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$27.08
- Breakeven graded value
- $279value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.7dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 77.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- +4.2%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 3active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $137mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $143cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $125
- Median
- $139
- Mean
- $139
- Max
- $159
Showing 17 of 17 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 47.93 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 50.83 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 47.48 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 1.2 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $125 | Mercari | Near Mint | 55d ago |
| $130 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 61d ago |
| $132 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 62d ago |
| $143 | PWCC | Near Mint | 75d ago |
| $139 | Mercari | Near Mint | 77d ago |
| $138 | Mercari | Near Mint | 78d ago |
| $145 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 79d ago |
| $144 | PWCC | Near Mint | 81d ago |
| $134 | Mercari | Near Mint | 85d ago |
| $141 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 89d ago |
| $130 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 102d ago |
| $159 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 108d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HeracrossHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $166 | $148 | 10.9% | 3.1% | 14 | 32 |
 LaprasHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $189 | $162 | 14.1% | 1.9% | 14 | 52 |
 AzumarillHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $103 | $95.74 | 7.2% | 3.1% | 12 | 39 |
 ChanseyHeartGold SoulSilverPSA 10Simulated
| $272 | $229 | 15.9% | 3.3% | 15 | 48 |
 FlaaffyHeartGold SoulSilverBGS 9Simulated
| $183 | $153 | 16.3% | 12.9% | 12 | 50 |
 ClefairyHeartGold SoulSilverPSA 9Simulated
| $124 | $113 | 8.5% | 12.8% | 3 | 50 |