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Venomoth — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Uncommon

Venomoth

Simulated

Venomoth · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Uncommon · 49

Character: Venomoth

high confidencebearish3930d 8.9%
Estimated Fair Value
$12.93
Lowest listing $10.5718.3% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$10.98
Base Case
$12.93
Bull Case
$14.79

Price History

Dec 8Range $37.88 – $71.25Jun 5

Opportunity Score

46
  • 18% below fair value+21 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (12 sales/mo)+4 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish39

Venomoth is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-8.9%). Estimated fair value is $13 against a lowest active listing of $11. Valuation confidence is high based on 10-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-8.9% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
10
Sales / Month
12.0
Velocity Score
60/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
-8.0%
Confidence
97/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-72.1%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$10.57
All-in cost
$39.57+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$42.28
Expected proceeds
$11.0430% gem → $12.68 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$28.53
Breakeven graded value
$152value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.4dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
85.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-3.9%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
3active listings
Recent sold avg
$62.00mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$59.60cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$51.37
Median
$63.83
Mean
$63.17
Max
$76.75

Showing 24 of 24 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps13.9250%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices12.1825%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection12.5425%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-1.620%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$59.60Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7875d agoJan 1View
$68.00Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9274d agoJan 1View
$74.13MercariNear Mint6671d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$67.15MercariNear Mint56d ago
$70.38TCGPlayerNear Mint58d ago
$69.17eBayNear Mint60d ago
$76.75Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint60d ago
$61.34PWCCNear Mint63d ago
$60.17TCGPlayerNear Mint63d ago
$65.25Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint71d ago
$62.99PWCCNear Mint72d ago
$63.60MercariNear Mint72d ago
$65.44MercariNear Mint74d ago
$55.97Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint75d ago
$62.54TCGPlayerNear Mint77d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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