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Pikachu Holo Rare

PSA 10Simulated

Pikachu Holo Rare · Base Set · Holo Rare · 100/102

Character: Pikachu

high confidenceneutral4330d 1.0%
Estimated Fair Value
$1,379
Lowest listing $1,3402.8% below
Bear Case
$1,204
Base Case
$1,379
Bull Case
$1,553

Price History

Dec 2Range $922 – $1.6KMay 30

Opportunity Score

21
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • 3% below fair value+3 pts
  • Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral43

Pikachu Holo Rare (PSA 10) is currently fairly valued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-1.0%). Estimated fair value is $1379 against a lowest active listing of $1340. Valuation confidence is high based on 13-plus recent comparable sales.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and rising graded population (6.4%/mo).

Risk Indicators

  • Rising graded population may pressure prices
Active Listings
13
Sales / Month
4.0
Velocity Score
20/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
-3.2%
Total Graded
3,838
Gem Mint
1,172
Population Growth
+6.4%
Rising — supply pressure

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps1432.5350%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices1470.9325%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection1397.7825%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-3.250%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-0.6420%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$1,425MercariGraded646d agoJan 1View
$1,439Facebook MarketplaceGraded9311d agoJan 1View
$1,516TCGPlayerGraded693d agoJan 1View
$1,567TCGPlayerGraded969d agoJan 1View
$1,628MercariGraded943d agoJan 1View
$1,638TCGPlayerGraded826d agoJun 1View
$1,654TCGPlayerGraded9810d agoJan 1View
$1,683PWCCGraded953d agoJun 2View
$1,720TCGPlayerGraded758d agoJan 1View
$1,727eBayGraded9314d agoJan 1View
$1,790MercariGraded9823h agoJan 1View
$1,793eBayGraded6515d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$1,697MercariGraded1d ago
$1,438Facebook MarketplaceGraded6d ago
$1,610PWCCGraded7d ago
$1,572MercariGraded7d ago
$1,525MercariGraded7d ago
$1,381PWCCGraded18d ago
$1,349PWCCGraded19d ago
$1,237Facebook MarketplaceGraded23d ago
$1,132eBayGraded24d ago
$1,452MercariGraded40d ago
$1,448eBayGraded40d ago
$1,525TCGPlayerGraded45d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
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  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
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  • Low active inventory+6 pts
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  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
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