Lugia V (Full Art)
BGS 9.5SimulatedLugia V (Full Art) · Crown Zenith · Full Art · 6/159
Character: Lugia
Price History
Opportunity Score
58- 13% below fair value+15 pts
- Population growth slowing+8 pts
- Reputable seller+8 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Sales accelerating+6 pts
- Low active inventory+4 pts
- Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts
- Price up 6% over 30 days+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish70Lugia V (Full Art) (BGS 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+5.8%). Estimated fair value is $260 against a lowest active listing of $227. Valuation confidence is high based on 6-plus recent comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+5.8% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 241.73 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 264.17 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 262.83 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | 0.02 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 2.81 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $166 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 64 | 14d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $167 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 91 | 2d ago | Jun 4 | View |
| $171 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 77 | 23h ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $177 | Mercari | Graded | 80 | 21d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $185 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 70 | 18d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $193 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 81 | 2d ago | Jun 2 | View |
| $199 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 71 | 16d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $201 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 63 | 21d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $173 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 2d ago |
| $177 | PWCC | Graded | 2d ago |
| $206 | Mercari | Graded | 5d ago |
| $197 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 8d ago |
| $215 | eBay | Graded | 21d ago |
| $223 | Mercari | Graded | 26d ago |
| $208 | Mercari | Graded | 34d ago |
| $215 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 37d ago |
| $202 | PWCC | Graded | 43d ago |
| $210 | PWCC | Graded | 47d ago |
| $202 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 47d ago |
| $212 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 50d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Lugia Holo RareBase SetSimulated
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Lugia (Neo Genesis)Neo GenesisPSA 9Simulated
| $1,310 | $984 | 24.9% | 29.2% | 19 | 60 |
Lugia Holo RareEvolving SkiesPSA 9.5Simulated
| $192 | $192 | 0.0% | 5.1% | 2 | 40 |