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Lugia V (Full Art)

BGS 9.5Simulated

Lugia V (Full Art) · Crown Zenith · Full Art · 6/159

Character: Lugia

high confidencebullish7030d 5.8%
Estimated Fair Value
$260
Lowest listing $22712.8% below
Bear Case
$222
Base Case
$260
Bull Case
$300

Price History

Dec 2Range $179$338May 30

Opportunity Score

58
  • 13% below fair value+15 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Sales accelerating+6 pts
  • Low active inventory+4 pts
  • Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts
  • Price up 6% over 30 days+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish70

Lugia V (Full Art) (BGS 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+5.8%). Estimated fair value is $260 against a lowest active listing of $227. Valuation confidence is high based on 6-plus recent comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+5.8% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
6
Sales / Month
9.5
Velocity Score
48/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+14.1%
Total Graded
267
Gem Mint
64
Population Growth
-0.0%
Stable supply

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps241.7350%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices264.1725%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection262.8325%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)0.0250%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)2.8120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$166TCGPlayerGraded6414d agoJan 1View
$167Facebook MarketplaceGraded912d agoJun 4View
$171Facebook MarketplaceGraded7723h agoJan 1View
$177MercariGraded8021d agoJan 1View
$185Facebook MarketplaceGraded7018d agoJan 1View
$193Facebook MarketplaceGraded812d agoJun 2View
$199TCGPlayerGraded7116d agoJan 1View
$201TCGPlayerGraded6321d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$173TCGPlayerGraded2d ago
$177PWCCGraded2d ago
$206MercariGraded5d ago
$197Facebook MarketplaceGraded8d ago
$215eBayGraded21d ago
$223MercariGraded26d ago
$208MercariGraded34d ago
$215Facebook MarketplaceGraded37d ago
$202PWCCGraded43d ago
$210PWCCGraded47d ago
$202TCGPlayerGraded47d ago
$212Facebook MarketplaceGraded50d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Charizard V (Full Art)Crown ZenithSimulated
  • 12% below fair value+14 pts
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$639$56511.6%6.5%1450
Lugia Secret RareCrown ZenithSimulated
  • 13% below fair value+16 pts
  • Sales accelerating+9 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
$456$39513.3%2.9%357
Lugia Ultra RareEX Ruby & SapphireSimulated
  • 15% below fair value+18 pts
  • Low active inventory+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
$281$23915.0%9.3%445
Lugia Holo RareBase SetSimulated
  • 15% below fair value+18 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
$430$36515.3%5.4%1043
Lugia (Neo Genesis)Neo GenesisPSA 9Simulated
  • 25% below fair value+29 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • Population growth slowing+7 pts
$1,310$98424.9%29.2%1960
Lugia Holo RareEvolving SkiesPSA 9.5Simulated
  • Sales accelerating+11 pts
  • Low active inventory+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
$192$1920.0%5.1%240