Charizard Secret Rare
BGS 9.5SimulatedCharizard Secret Rare · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Secret Rare · 80/207
Character: Charizard
Price History
Opportunity Score
38- Reputable seller+8 pts
- Population growth slowing+7 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Strong demand (18 sales/mo)+6 pts
- 5% below fair value+5 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral58Charizard Secret Rare (BGS 9.5) is currently fairly valued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-2.4%). Estimated fair value is $671 against a lowest active listing of $641. Valuation confidence is high based on 9-plus recent comparable sales.
Neutral: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 697.72 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 700.5 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 651.93 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -0.4 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -1.9 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $604 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 84 | 13d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $615 | eBay | Graded | 77 | 15d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $625 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 65 | 15d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $627 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 67 | 10d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $644 | PWCC | Graded | 60 | 20d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $647 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 86 | 18d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $715 | PWCC | Graded | 67 | 17d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $722 | Mercari | Graded | 82 | 6d ago | Jun 3 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $612 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 1d ago |
| $764 | PWCC | Graded | 6d ago |
| $711 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 7d ago |
| $757 | eBay | Graded | 11d ago |
| $666 | eBay | Graded | 18d ago |
| $653 | PWCC | Graded | 24d ago |
| $609 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 25d ago |
| $732 | PWCC | Graded | 25d ago |
| $630 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 27d ago |
| $855 | Mercari | Graded | 35d ago |
| $814 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 38d ago |
| $778 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 41d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charizard GX (Shiny)Hidden FatesPSA 10Simulated
| $783 | $690 | 11.9% | 2.7% | 14 | 49 |
Base ZardBase SetPSA 10Simulated
| $6,998 | $6,688 | 4.4% | 16.7% | 12 | 28 |
Charizard Holo RareEvolving SkiesSimulated
| $216 | $174 | 19.4% | 20.2% | 16 | 43 |
Charizard ex (Illustration Rare)Evolving SkiesBGS 9.5Simulated
| $538 | $488 | 9.3% | 5.0% | 21 | 35 |
Charizard Ultra RareHidden FatesSimulated
| $439 | $383 | 12.7% | 16.7% | 17 | 45 |
Charizard ex (Illustration Rare)XY EvolutionsSimulated
| $946 | $838 | 11.4% | 3.8% | 17 | 39 |