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Gengar ex (Special Illustration)

Simulated

Gengar ex (Special Illustration) · Prismatic Evolutions · Special Illustration Rare · 145/180

Character: Gengar

high confidencebullish7330d 4.0%
Estimated Fair Value
$473
Lowest listing $39516.4% below
Bear Case
$410
Base Case
$473
Bull Case
$537

Price History

Dec 2Range $308$555May 30

Opportunity Score

52
  • 16% below fair value+19 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Sales accelerating+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (20 sales/mo)+6 pts
  • Price up 4% over 30 days+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish73

Gengar ex (Special Illustration) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+4.0%). Estimated fair value is $473 against a lowest active listing of $395. Valuation confidence is high based on 22-plus recent comparable sales.

Bullish: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
22
Sales / Month
19.5
Velocity Score
98/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+15.6%
Confidence
98/100

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps451.9650%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices459.125%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection472.2725%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)3.1120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$464MercariNear Mint8418d agoJan 1View
$476Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9014d agoJan 1View
$519MercariNear Mint6512d agoJan 1View
$583eBayNear Mint8313d agoJan 1View
$584eBayNear Mint7020d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$487MercariNear Mint2d ago
$472TCGPlayerNear Mint2d ago
$479eBayNear Mint2d ago
$532TCGPlayerNear Mint3d ago
$500Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint12d ago
$500eBayNear Mint15d ago
$515Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint16d ago
$479eBayNear Mint20d ago
$476TCGPlayerNear Mint21d ago
$518eBayNear Mint22d ago
$522TCGPlayerNear Mint23d ago
$528Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint24d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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