Gengar ex (Special Illustration)
SimulatedGengar ex (Special Illustration) · Prismatic Evolutions · Special Illustration Rare · 145/180
Character: Gengar
Price History
Opportunity Score
52- 16% below fair value+19 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- Sales accelerating+6 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Strong demand (20 sales/mo)+6 pts
- Price up 4% over 30 days+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish73Gengar ex (Special Illustration) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+4.0%). Estimated fair value is $473 against a lowest active listing of $395. Valuation confidence is high based on 22-plus recent comparable sales.
Bullish: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 451.96 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 459.1 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 472.27 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 3.11 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $487 | Mercari | Near Mint | 2d ago |
| $472 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 2d ago |
| $479 | eBay | Near Mint | 2d ago |
| $532 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 3d ago |
| $500 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 12d ago |
| $500 | eBay | Near Mint | 15d ago |
| $515 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 16d ago |
| $479 | eBay | Near Mint | 20d ago |
| $476 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 21d ago |
| $518 | eBay | Near Mint | 22d ago |
| $522 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 23d ago |
| $528 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 24d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Umbreon ex (Special Illustration)Prismatic EvolutionsSimulated
| $638 | $517 | 18.9% | 18.4% | 7 | 64 |
Umbreon VMAX (Alt Art)Prismatic EvolutionsSimulated
| $450 | $425 | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5 | 32 |
Rayquaza Ultra RarePrismatic EvolutionsBGS 9Simulated
| $454 | $432 | 4.8% | 8.3% | 17 | 36 |
Pikachu VMAX (Alt Art)Prismatic EvolutionsSimulated
| $520 | $465 | 10.6% | 5.9% | 13 | 36 |
Gengar V (Full Art)XY EvolutionsSimulated
| $344 | $328 | 4.6% | 7.8% | 12 | 39 |
Gengar Secret RareHeartGold SoulSilverBGS 9Simulated
| $664 | $618 | 6.8% | 0.2% | 21 | 38 |