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Umbreon Secret Rare card artwork

Umbreon Secret Rare

BGS 10Simulated

Umbreon Secret Rare · Jungle · Secret Rare · 18/64

Character: Umbreon

high confidencebullish6830d ▲8.6%
Estimated Fair Value
$5,355
Lowest listing $4,9158.2% below
Bear Case
$4,700
Base Case
$5,355
Bull Case
$6,029

Price History

Dec 2Range $3.2K – $4.7KMay 30

Opportunity Score

44
  • 8% below fair value+10 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Sales accelerating+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • Low active inventory+5 pts
  • Price up 9% over 30 days+3 pts
  • Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts
  • Population growth slowing+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish68

Umbreon Secret Rare (BGS 10) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+8.6%). Estimated fair value is $5355 against a lowest active listing of $4915. Valuation confidence is high based on 5-plus recent comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+8.6% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
5
Sales / Month
5.5
Velocity Score
28/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+13.7%
Total Graded
1,227
Gem Mint
734
Population Growth
+4.2%
Slowing

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps5185.7450%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices5424.925%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection5498.5425%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-2.150%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)2.7520%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$3,721TCGPlayerGraded10016d agoJan 1View
$3,937eBayGraded8010d agoJan 1View
$3,968eBayGraded8710d agoJan 1View
$4,190TCGPlayerGraded7720d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$4,238TCGPlayerGraded5d ago
$4,676TCGPlayerGraded6d ago
$3,922eBayGraded12d ago
$3,992MercariGraded19d ago
$3,771TCGPlayerGraded20d ago
$3,700TCGPlayerGraded21d ago
$4,432PWCCGraded29d ago
$4,233TCGPlayerGraded29d ago
$4,632MercariGraded30d ago
$4,192Facebook MarketplaceGraded30d ago
$4,459eBayGraded34d ago
$4,516Facebook MarketplaceGraded39d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Related Assets

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Umbreon PromoScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
  • 10% below fair value+11 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
$283$2559.8%▲11.6%1937
MoonbreonEvolving SkiesPSA 10Simulated
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • 8% below fair value+9 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
$1,573$1,4517.7%▲2.4%1544
Umbreon Holo RareXY EvolutionsSimulated
  • 21% below fair value+25 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$279$22021.1%▼23.8%1148
Umbreon V (Full Art)Scarlet & Violet 151BGS 9.5Simulated
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (19 sales/mo)+6 pts
$546$5411.0%▼12.6%1034
Umbreon PromoHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
  • 10% below fair value+11 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
$388$3519.5%▲3.1%2234
Umbreon Holo RareEvolving SkiesBGS 9Simulated
  • 10% below fair value+11 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
$339$3069.6%▼14.7%538