Raichu
CGC 9.5SimulatedRaichu · XY Evolutions · Rare Holo · 36
Character: Raichu
Price History
Opportunity Score
55- 12% below fair value+14 pts
- Sales accelerating+9 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- Population growth slowing+5 pts
- Low active inventory+3 pts
- Price up 8% over 30 days+3 pts
- Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish69Raichu (CGC 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+7.5%). Estimated fair value is $62 against a lowest active listing of $54. Valuation confidence is high based on 7-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+7.5% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to 1.0%/mo — supply tightening across 8009 graded.
8,009 graded · 20% gem · +1.0%/mo
- Raw cost
- $54.43
- All-in cost
- $83.43+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $61.94
- Expected proceeds
- $16.1730% gem → $18.58 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$67.26
- Breakeven graded value
- $320value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 4.3dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 20.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -2.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 20active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $95.69mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $93.69cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $90.40
- Median
- $97.49
- Mean
- $103
- Max
- $125
Showing 22 of 22 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 58.22 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 58.77 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 63.89 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -1 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 4.65 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $93.69 | PWCC | Graded | 95 | 63d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $96.45 | PWCC | Graded | 69 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $99.27 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 91 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $99.40 | eBay | Graded | 91 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $102 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 78 | 74d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $102 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 97 | 75d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $103 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 87 | 65d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $103 | PWCC | Graded | 70 | 61d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $103 | eBay | Graded | 100 | 75d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $105 | PWCC | Graded | 69 | 60d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $105 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 91 | 55d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $105 | PWCC | Graded | 67 | 63d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $101 | eBay | Graded | 55d ago |
| $96.21 | eBay | Graded | 61d ago |
| $95.37 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 75d ago |
| $94.96 | eBay | Graded | 75d ago |
| $91.33 | eBay | Graded | 78d ago |
| $95.13 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 93d ago |
| $94.31 | eBay | Graded | 94d ago |
| $96.40 | Mercari | Graded | 96d ago |
| $103 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 98d ago |
| $90.40 | eBay | Graded | 98d ago |
| $90.88 | eBay | Graded | 98d ago |
| $98.58 | PWCC | Graded | 99d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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