Lucario Promo
SimulatedLucario Promo · Hidden Fates · Promo · 32/163
Character: Lucario
Price History
Opportunity Score
51- 17% below fair value+20 pts
- Sales accelerating+11 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+5 pts
- Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish36Lucario Promo is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-8.1%). Estimated fair value is $131 against a lowest active listing of $108. Valuation confidence is high based on 20-plus recent comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-8.1% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 125.57 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 122.6 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 121.5 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 5.58 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $146 | eBay | Near Mint | 95 | 21d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $147 | Mercari | Near Mint | 68 | 19d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $150 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 98 | 21d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $152 | eBay | Near Mint | 62 | 2d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $152 | Mercari | Near Mint | 74 | 19d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $158 | Mercari | Near Mint | 95 | 9d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $160 | Mercari | Near Mint | 81 | 16d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $163 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 92 | 4d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $166 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 90 | 19d ago | Jun 1 | View |
| $167 | eBay | Near Mint | 61 | 19d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $168 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 73 | 16d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $172 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 74 | 16d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $157 | PWCC | Near Mint | 12h ago |
| $161 | eBay | Near Mint | 6d ago |
| $152 | eBay | Near Mint | 8d ago |
| $166 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 21d ago |
| $144 | eBay | Near Mint | 29d ago |
| $149 | PWCC | Near Mint | 35d ago |
| $159 | PWCC | Near Mint | 38d ago |
| $164 | eBay | Near Mint | 53d ago |
| $158 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 57d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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