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Magnemite — Base Set — Common

Magnemite

Simulated

Magnemite · Base Set · Common · 53

Character: Magnemite

high confidencebearish2530d 13.4%
Estimated Fair Value
$44.60
Lowest listing $36.5118.1% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$38.99
Base Case
$44.60
Bull Case
$50.25

Price History

Dec 8Range $126 – $218Jun 5

Opportunity Score

51
  • 18% below fair value+21 pts
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish25

Magnemite is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-13.4%). Estimated fair value is $45 against a lowest active listing of $37. Valuation confidence is high based on 14-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-13.4% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
14
Sales / Month
5.5
Velocity Score
28/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+25.4%
Confidence
82/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-41.8%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$36.51
All-in cost
$65.51+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$146
Expected proceeds
$38.1230% gem → $43.81 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$27.39
Breakeven graded value
$251value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.4dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
62.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-7.6%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
11active listings
Recent sold avg
$187mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$173cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$164
Median
$186
Mean
$188
Max
$210

Showing 30 of 32 sales · 2 outliers trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps42.5850%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices40.8225%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection43.8125%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)5.0820%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$173PWCCNear Mint7265d agoJan 1View
$173Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9272d agoJan 1View
$182eBayNear Mint7163d agoJun 6View
$185PWCCNear Mint9155d agoJan 1View
$194PWCCNear Mint9568d agoJan 1View
$199MercariNear Mint9668d agoJan 1View
$201Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6664d agoJan 1View
$212PWCCNear Mint9665d agoJan 1View
$218MercariNear Mint9064d agoJan 1View
$218MercariNear Mint7466d agoJun 8View
$229Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9057d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$210PWCCNear Mint54d ago
$184MercariNear Mint57d ago
$188eBayNear Mint58d ago
$186MercariNear Mint58d ago
$199MercariNear Mint60d ago
$184eBayNear Mint61d ago
$186eBayNear Mint61d ago
$189eBayNear Mint63d ago
$185Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint66d ago
$186Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint67d ago
$186PWCCNear Mint68d ago
$192eBayNear Mint72d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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